AFLW · ROUND 1 · UNLEY OVAL
Adelaide Crows v Sydney Swans
Sun 16 Aug 2026, 12:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
SYD by 0
SYD to win, 50% chance
ADE 50%50% SYD
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 8
HIT Actual margin 8 · 7.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ebony Marinoff | R | 24.8 | 21.1 to 28.5 | 15.6 to 34.0 | 96% | 83% | 52% | 20% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 27.0 |
| Grace Egan | HFFR | 18.9 | 15.6 to 22.2 | 10.7 to 27.1 | 78% | 41% | 13% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Sarah Goodwin | C | 18.4 | 15.1 to 21.7 | 10.3 to 26.5 | 77% | 38% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 25.0 |
| Madison Newman | WL | 18.0 | 14.7 to 21.2 | 10.0 to 26.0 | 74% | 33% | 10% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Niamh Kelly | HBFR | 14.9 | 11.9 to 17.9 | 7.4 to 22.3 | 51% | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Chelsea Biddell | CHB | 12.9 | 10.0 to 15.7 | 5.9 to 19.9 | 31% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Teah Charlton | RR | 11.9 | 9.2 to 14.7 | 5.1 to 18.7 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Sarah Allan | FB | 11.2 | 8.5 to 13.9 | 4.6 to 17.8 | 20% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Hannah Munyard | HFFL | 10.7 | 8.1 to 13.3 | 4.2 to 17.2 | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Caitlin Gould | FF | 10.1 | 7.6 to 12.7 | 3.8 to 16.5 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Brooke Tonon | BPL | 9.8 | 7.2 to 12.3 | 3.5 to 16.0 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Eloise Jones | HBFL | 9.7 | 7.2 to 12.2 | 3.4 to 16.0 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Jess Allan | RK | 8.5 | 6.1 to 10.9 | 2.5 to 14.4 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Keeley Kustermann | WR | 8.0 | 5.6 to 10.3 | 2.2 to 13.8 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Kayleigh Cronin | CHF | 7.7 | 5.4 to 10.0 | 2.0 to 13.4 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Kiera Mueller | INT | 7.6 | 5.3 to 9.9 | 1.9 to 13.3 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Amy Boyle-Carr | INT | 7.5 | 5.2 to 9.8 | 1.8 to 13.1 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Christina Leuzzi | FPR | 6.9 | 4.7 to 9.2 | 1.4 to 12.4 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Chloe Bown | INT | 5.9 | 3.8 to 8.0 | 0.7 to 11.1 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Juliet Kelly | INT | 5.9 | 3.8 to 8.0 | 0.7 to 11.1 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Olivia Gorman | INT | 5.9 | 3.8 to 8.0 | 0.7 to 11.1 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laura Gardiner | INT | 20.9 | 17.4 to 24.4 | 12.4 to 29.5 | 90% | 61% | 24% | 5% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Sofia Hurley | C | 18.7 | 15.4 to 22.0 | 10.5 to 26.8 | 77% | 39% | 12% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Montana Ham | R | 17.6 | 14.4 to 20.8 | 9.6 to 25.6 | 70% | 30% | 8% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Ally Morphett | RK | 17.4 | 14.1 to 20.6 | 9.4 to 25.3 | 69% | 30% | 8% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Zippy Fish | HBFL | 17.0 | 13.8 to 20.1 | 9.1 to 24.8 | 65% | 26% | 7% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Lucy McEvoy | RR | 13.9 | 11.0 to 16.8 | 6.7 to 21.1 | 38% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Lulu Pullar | WR | 12.5 | 9.7 to 15.3 | 5.5 to 19.4 | 29% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Chloe Molloy | CHF | 12.4 | 9.6 to 15.1 | 5.5 to 19.2 | 29% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Cynthia Hamilton | HFFR | 10.2 | 7.6 to 12.7 | 3.8 to 16.5 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Darcy Moloney | HBFR | 10.1 | 7.5 to 12.7 | 3.8 to 16.5 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Brenna Tarrant | FB | 9.8 | 7.2 to 12.3 | 3.5 to 16.0 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Julie O'Sullivan | WL | 8.6 | 6.2 to 11.0 | 2.6 to 14.5 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Alexia Hamilton | CHB | 8.3 | 5.9 to 10.7 | 2.4 to 14.2 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Taylor Smith | FF | 8.2 | 5.8 to 10.6 | 2.4 to 14.1 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Ash Van Loon | BPL | 8.0 | 5.7 to 10.4 | 2.2 to 13.8 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Lara Hausegger | INT | 7.9 | 5.6 to 10.3 | 2.2 to 13.7 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Sarah Grunden | INT | 7.5 | 5.2 to 9.8 | 1.8 to 13.2 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Holly Cooper | HFFL | 7.3 | 5.0 to 9.6 | 1.7 to 12.9 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Paris McCarthy | INT | 6.6 | 4.4 to 8.8 | 1.2 to 12.0 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Maddie Quinn | FPR | 6.5 | 4.3 to 8.7 | 1.1 to 11.9 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Imogen Brown | INT | 5.8 | 3.7 to 7.9 | 0.7 to 11.0 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |