AFLW · ROUND 1 · UNLEY OVAL
Adelaide Crows v Sydney Swans
Sun 16 Aug 2026, 12:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
SYD by 0
SYD to win, 50% chance
ADE 50%50% SYD
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 8
HIT Actual margin 8 · 7.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ebony Marinoff | R | 129 | 112 to 146 | 88 to 170 | 99% | 98% | 95% | 88% | 78% | inside our 50% range: 123 |
| Sarah Goodwin | C | 79 | 65 to 93 | 45 to 113 | 66% | 48% | 33% | 15% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 87 |
| Grace Egan | HFFR | 78 | 63 to 92 | 44 to 111 | 62% | 44% | 30% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Madison Newman | WL | 66 | 53 to 80 | 34 to 98 | 41% | 25% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 90 |
| Teah Charlton | RR | 60 | 47 to 73 | 29 to 91 | 27% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 42 |
| Niamh Kelly | HBFR | 59 | 46 to 72 | 28 to 90 | 26% | 12% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Caitlin Gould | FF | 56 | 43 to 68 | 26 to 86 | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Chelsea Biddell | CHB | 54 | 41 to 66 | 24 to 83 | 19% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Eloise Jones | HBFL | 51 | 39 to 63 | 22 to 80 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 47 |
| Jess Allan | RK | 51 | 39 to 63 | 22 to 80 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 66 |
| Hannah Munyard | HFFL | 48 | 36 to 60 | 20 to 77 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 43 |
| Sarah Allan | FB | 46 | 34 to 57 | 17 to 74 | 9% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 35 |
| Brooke Tonon | BPL | 41 | 30 to 52 | 14 to 68 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 34 |
| Kayleigh Cronin | CHF | 36 | 25 to 47 | 10 to 62 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 52 |
| Keeley Kustermann | WR | 34 | 24 to 45 | 8 to 60 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 37 |
| Kiera Mueller | INT | 33 | 23 to 44 | 8 to 58 | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4 |
| Amy Boyle-Carr | INT | 33 | 22 to 43 | 8 to 58 | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 56 |
| Christina Leuzzi | FPR | 30 | 20 to 40 | 6 to 55 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 44 |
| Chloe Bown | INT | 27 | 17 to 37 | 3 to 51 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 70 |
| Juliet Kelly | INT | 27 | 17 to 37 | 3 to 51 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 41 |
| Olivia Gorman | INT | 27 | 17 to 37 | 3 to 51 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 38 |
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laura Gardiner | INT | 109 | 93 to 125 | 71 to 148 | 96% | 90% | 79% | 65% | 47% | inside our 90% range: 90 |
| Sofia Hurley | C | 84 | 69 to 98 | 49 to 118 | 74% | 56% | 35% | 21% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 92 |
| Ally Morphett | RK | 83 | 68 to 97 | 48 to 117 | 72% | 53% | 34% | 20% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 98 |
| Montana Ham | R | 82 | 67 to 96 | 47 to 116 | 71% | 52% | 33% | 18% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 55 |
| Zippy Fish | HBFL | 71 | 57 to 84 | 38 to 104 | 51% | 33% | 17% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 98 |
| Lucy McEvoy | RR | 65 | 51 to 78 | 33 to 96 | 38% | 23% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 88 |
| Chloe Molloy | CHF | 60 | 48 to 73 | 29 to 91 | 27% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 84 |
| Lulu Pullar | WR | 51 | 39 to 63 | 22 to 80 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 32 |
| Taylor Smith | FF | 46 | 34 to 58 | 18 to 74 | 10% | 4% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 61 |
| Alexia Hamilton | CHB | 44 | 33 to 56 | 16 to 72 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 38 |
| Cynthia Hamilton | HFFR | 44 | 32 to 55 | 16 to 71 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 78 |
| Darcy Moloney | HBFR | 42 | 31 to 53 | 15 to 69 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 71 |
| Brenna Tarrant | FB | 39 | 28 to 50 | 12 to 66 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5 |
| Ash Van Loon | BPL | 39 | 28 to 50 | 12 to 66 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 36 |
| Holly Cooper | HFFL | 39 | 28 to 50 | 12 to 65 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 60 |
| Julie O'Sullivan | WL | 38 | 27 to 49 | 11 to 64 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 49 |
| Sarah Grunden | INT | 36 | 25 to 47 | 10 to 62 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19 |
| Lara Hausegger | INT | 34 | 23 to 44 | 8 to 59 | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 60 |
| Maddie Quinn | FPR | 31 | 21 to 42 | 6 to 56 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 51 |
| Paris McCarthy | INT | 29 | 19 to 39 | 5 to 53 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14 |
| Imogen Brown | INT | 27 | 17 to 37 | 3 to 51 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 70 |