AFLW · ROUND 1 · UNLEY OVAL
Adelaide Crows v Sydney Swans
Sun 16 Aug 2026, 12:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
SYD by 0
SYD to win, 50% chance
ADE 50%50% SYD
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 8
HIT Actual margin 8 · 7.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ebony Marinoff | R | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.0 to 6.8 | 54% | 39% | 24% | 12% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Caitlin Gould | FF | 3.1 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.4 | 48% | 33% | 19% | 11% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Chelsea Biddell | CHB | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 40% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Madison Newman | WL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 38% | 24% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Eloise Jones | HBFL | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 24% | 12% | 6% | 2% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Grace Egan | HFFR | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 25% | 14% | 8% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Sarah Allan | FB | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 27% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Niamh Kelly | HBFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 24% | 12% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Sarah Goodwin | C | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 22% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Hannah Munyard | HFFL | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 16% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Keeley Kustermann | WR | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 12% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jess Allan | RK | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Brooke Tonon | BPL | 1.2 | 0.3 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Teah Charlton | RR | 1.2 | 0.3 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Christina Leuzzi | FPR | 1.1 | 0.3 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 10% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Kayleigh Cronin | CHF | 1.1 | 0.3 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 12% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Amy Boyle-Carr | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Chloe Bown | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Juliet Kelly | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Kiera Mueller | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 8% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Olivia Gorman | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ally Morphett | RK | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.0 to 6.9 | 57% | 39% | 24% | 14% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Chloe Molloy | CHF | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 39% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Montana Ham | R | 2.7 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 39% | 24% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Laura Gardiner | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 39% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Lucy McEvoy | RR | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 33% | 20% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Brenna Tarrant | FB | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 24% | 12% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Taylor Smith | FF | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 24% | 11% | 6% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Alexia Hamilton | CHB | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 19% | 10% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ash Van Loon | BPL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 17% | 9% | 4% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Lulu Pullar | WR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 19% | 8% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Sofia Hurley | C | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 24% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Zippy Fish | HBFL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 24% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Cynthia Hamilton | HFFR | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 24% | 12% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Darcy Moloney | HBFR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Sarah Grunden | INT | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Lara Hausegger | INT | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Holly Cooper | HFFL | 1.1 | 0.2 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 8% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Imogen Brown | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Julie O'Sullivan | WL | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Maddie Quinn | FPR | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Paris McCarthy | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |