AFLW · ROUND 1 · UNLEY OVAL
Adelaide Crows v Sydney Swans
Sun 16 Aug 2026, 12:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
SYD by 0
SYD to win, 50% chance
ADE 50%50% SYD
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 8
HIT Actual margin 8 · 7.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ebony Marinoff | R | 10.3 | 7.9 to 12.8 | 4.9 to 15.7 | 100% | 100% | 97% | 91% | 84% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Teah Charlton | RR | 5.7 | 3.9 to 7.6 | 1.7 to 9.8 | 86% | 74% | 64% | 52% | 40% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Sarah Goodwin | C | 5.2 | 3.5 to 7.0 | 1.4 to 9.1 | 84% | 71% | 55% | 40% | 27% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Grace Egan | HFFR | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.5 to 7.1 | 65% | 49% | 37% | 24% | 13% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Hannah Munyard | HFFL | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.2 to 6.2 | 53% | 37% | 23% | 11% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Madison Newman | WL | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 53% | 32% | 15% | 9% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Eloise Jones | HBFL | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 8% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Amy Boyle-Carr | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 37% | 21% | 9% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Caitlin Gould | FF | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 32% | 16% | 9% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Niamh Kelly | HBFR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 40% | 24% | 11% | 5% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Brooke Tonon | BPL | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 38% | 23% | 8% | 5% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Sarah Allan | FB | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 33% | 21% | 8% | 5% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Chloe Bown | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 27% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Juliet Kelly | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 27% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Kiera Mueller | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 31% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Olivia Gorman | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 27% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Christina Leuzzi | FPR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 38% | 18% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Keeley Kustermann | WR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 32% | 15% | 11% | 4% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Jess Allan | RK | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 31% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Kayleigh Cronin | CHF | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 27% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Chelsea Biddell | CHB | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laura Gardiner | INT | 8.0 | 5.8 to 10.1 | 3.2 to 12.7 | 97% | 92% | 85% | 74% | 65% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Sofia Hurley | C | 5.7 | 3.9 to 7.5 | 1.7 to 9.7 | 86% | 74% | 64% | 51% | 40% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Montana Ham | R | 5.1 | 3.4 to 6.9 | 1.3 to 8.9 | 84% | 71% | 53% | 38% | 27% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Lucy McEvoy | RR | 4.7 | 3.1 to 6.4 | 1.1 to 8.4 | 77% | 62% | 49% | 32% | 24% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Ash Van Loon | BPL | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.2 to 6.4 | 61% | 45% | 27% | 13% | 9% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Holly Cooper | HFFL | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.2 to 6.2 | 53% | 35% | 22% | 11% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Zippy Fish | HBFL | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.2 to 6.2 | 49% | 32% | 19% | 11% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Ally Morphett | RK | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.0 | 53% | 32% | 19% | 11% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Lulu Pullar | WR | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 8% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Alexia Hamilton | CHB | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 40% | 24% | 13% | 7% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Chloe Molloy | CHF | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 56% | 38% | 24% | 11% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Julie O'Sullivan | WL | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 7% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Sarah Grunden | INT | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Cynthia Hamilton | HFFR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 38% | 23% | 11% | 7% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Darcy Moloney | HBFR | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 45% | 24% | 11% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Lara Hausegger | INT | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 39% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Maddie Quinn | FPR | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 32% | 15% | 7% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Brenna Tarrant | FB | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 31% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Imogen Brown | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 31% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Paris McCarthy | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 32% | 15% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Taylor Smith | FF | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 38% | 18% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |