AFLW · ROUND 1 · WINDY HILL
Essendon v Brisbane Lions
Sun 16 Aug 2026, 12:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
BRI by 19
BRI to win, 79% chance
ESS 21%79% BRI
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
BRI by 48
HIT Actual margin 48 · 28.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Summary: our prediction for every market, one row per player. Where the match is played, the actual follows the slash. Choose a market for its ranges and chances.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Madison Prespakis | C | 21.8 / inside our 90% range: 30.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.4 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 3.6 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 82 / inside our 50% range: 95 |
| Georgia Nanscawen | INT | 17.6 / inside our 90% range: 14.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.6 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 7.1 / inside our 90% range: 10.0 | 83 / inside our 50% range: 77 |
| Maddison Gay | CHB | 17.6 / outside our 90% range: 27.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.3 / outside our 90% range: 7.0 | 2.8 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 72 / outside our 90% range: 108 |
| Amy Gaylor | R | 16.6 / inside our 90% range: 21.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.2 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 4.1 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 67 / inside our 90% range: 87 |
| Stephanie Cain | RR | 16.4 / outside our 90% range: 5.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 5.3 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 69 / outside our 90% range: 17 |
| Bonnie Toogood | FF | 13.7 / inside our 50% range: 16.0 | 0.8 / outside our 90% range: 2.0 | 3.2 / outside our 90% range: 7.0 | 2.9 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 66 / inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Georgia Gee | WL | 13.6 / inside our 50% range: 14.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.9 / outside our 90% range: 6.0 | 2.8 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 54 / inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Chloe Adams | HBFL | 12.1 / inside our 50% range: 12.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 4.5 / outside our 90% range: 0.0 | 56 / inside our 90% range: 34 |
| Stephanie Wales | RK | 11.8 / inside our 50% range: 10.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.9 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.9 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 69 / inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Alexandra Morcom | BPL | 11.7 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.6 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 3.1 / outside our 90% range: 0.0 | 49 / inside our 90% range: 25 |
| Maggie MacLachlan | WR | 11.7 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.7 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 49 / inside our 90% range: 29 |
| Mia Busch | HFFR | 11.1 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 3.5 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 51 / inside our 90% range: 35 |
| Grace Belloni | INT | 10.6 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 0.1 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 1.2 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 2.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 42 / inside our 90% range: 24 |
| Matilda Dyke | HBFR | 10.1 / inside our 50% range: 8.0 | -0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.8 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.8 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 39 / inside our 90% range: 19 |
| Sophie Alexander | CHF | 9.7 / inside our 50% range: 10.0 | 0.5 / outside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 44 / inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Zoe Prowse | FB | 9.6 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.2 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.3 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 43 / inside our 50% range: 36 |
| Holly Ridewood | INT | 8.1 / inside our 50% range: 7.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.0 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.4 / outside our 90% range: 7.0 | 34 / inside our 90% range: 50 |
| Emily Gough | FPR | 6.2 / inside our 50% range: 7.0 | 0.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 1.0 / outside our 90% range: 4.0 | 2.0 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 28 / inside our 90% range: 38 |
| Maggie Johnstone | HFFL | 6.1 / inside our 90% range: 10.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.0 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 30 / inside our 50% range: 28 |
| Courtney Murphy | INT | 5.8 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.0 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 2.2 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 26 / inside our 90% range: 15 |
| Nalu Brothwell | INT | 5.6 / inside our 90% range: 9.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.0 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.0 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 26 / inside our 90% range: 41 |
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isabel Dawes | RR | 21.5 / inside our 50% range: 21.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 7.0 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 91 / inside our 90% range: 68 |
| Orla O'Dwyer | WR | 18.1 / inside our 50% range: 18.0 | 0.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 3.4 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 70 / inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Sophie Conway | C | 17.9 / inside our 50% range: 15.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.8 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 4.4 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 78 / inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Charlotte Mullins | FPR | 17.1 / inside our 50% range: 19.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.8 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 4.3 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 73 / inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Jade Ellenger | HBFR | 16.5 / inside our 90% range: 23.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.7 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 4.2 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 67 / inside our 90% range: 83 |
| Lily Postlethwaite | WL | 12.6 / inside our 50% range: 15.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.6 / outside our 90% range: 6.0 | 2.4 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 50 / inside our 90% range: 67 |
| Breanna Koenen | BPL | 12.4 / inside our 90% range: 18.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.4 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 2.3 / outside our 90% range: 5.0 | 52 / outside our 90% range: 83 |
| Natalie Grider | HBFL | 12.1 / inside our 50% range: 13.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.1 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 2.9 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 52 / inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Tahlia Hickie | RK | 11.8 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 3.1 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 66 / inside our 90% range: 51 |
| Jennifer Dunne | FB | 11.5 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 1.8 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 45 / inside our 90% range: 25 |
| Catherine Svarc | R | 11.4 / outside our 90% range: 20.0 | 0.2 / outside our 90% range: 2.0 | 1.1 / outside our 90% range: 4.0 | 6.0 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 62 / inside our 90% range: 85 |
| Shannon Campbell | CHB | 11.3 / inside our 50% range: 11.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.5 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 1.5 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 49 / inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Ruby Svarc | HFFR | 10.4 / inside our 50% range: 11.0 | 0.8 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 1.8 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 3.2 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 50 / inside our 50% range: 48 |
| Lily-Rose Williamson | INT | 9.5 / outside our 90% range: 16.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.8 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 3.8 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 48 / inside our 90% range: 75 |
| Dakota Davidson | CHF | 8.8 / inside our 90% range: 12.0 | 1.2 / outside our 90% range: 4.0 | 2.2 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 47 / outside our 90% range: 77 |
| Shanae Davison | INT | 8.1 / inside our 50% range: 8.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.4 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 1.8 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 34 / inside our 50% range: 28 |
| Eleanor Hartill | FF | 7.7 / inside our 50% range: 10.0 | 0.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.4 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 38 / inside our 90% range: 51 |
| Marlo Graham | HFFL | 7.2 / outside our 90% range: 20.0 | 0.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 1.0 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 2.6 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 33 / outside our 90% range: 68 |
| Neasa Dooley | INT | 6.8 / inside our 50% range: 8.0 | 0.5 / outside our 90% range: 2.0 | 1.4 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 1.7 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 32 / inside our 90% range: 54 |
| Sophie Peters | INT | 6.3 / inside our 50% range: 7.0 | 0.1 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 1.0 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 2.2 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 28 / inside our 50% range: 29 |
| Claudia Wright | INT | 6.2 / inside our 50% range: 7.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.0 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.3 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 28 / inside our 50% range: 26 |