AFLW · ROUND 1 · WINDY HILL
Essendon v Brisbane Lions
Sun 16 Aug 2026, 12:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
BRI by 19
BRI to win, 79% chance
ESS 21%79% BRI
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
BRI by 48
HIT Actual margin 48 · 28.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Madison Prespakis | C | 21.8 | 18.3 to 25.3 | 13.1 to 30.5 | 92% | 66% | 30% | 8% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 30.0 |
| Georgia Nanscawen | INT | 17.6 | 14.4 to 20.8 | 9.6 to 25.5 | 70% | 30% | 8% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Maddison Gay | CHB | 17.6 | 14.4 to 20.9 | 9.7 to 25.6 | 70% | 31% | 9% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 27.0 |
| Amy Gaylor | R | 16.6 | 13.5 to 19.7 | 8.8 to 24.4 | 63% | 24% | 6% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Stephanie Cain | RR | 16.4 | 13.3 to 19.5 | 8.7 to 24.1 | 64% | 24% | 7% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Bonnie Toogood | FF | 13.7 | 10.8 to 16.6 | 6.5 to 20.9 | 37% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Georgia Gee | WL | 13.6 | 10.7 to 16.5 | 6.4 to 20.7 | 37% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Chloe Adams | HBFL | 12.1 | 9.4 to 14.9 | 5.3 to 19.0 | 26% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Stephanie Wales | RK | 11.8 | 9.0 to 14.5 | 5.0 to 18.5 | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Alexandra Morcom | BPL | 11.7 | 9.0 to 14.5 | 5.0 to 18.5 | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Maggie MacLachlan | WR | 11.7 | 8.9 to 14.4 | 4.9 to 18.4 | 21% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Mia Busch | HFFR | 11.1 | 8.4 to 13.7 | 4.5 to 17.6 | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Grace Belloni | INT | 10.6 | 7.9 to 13.2 | 4.1 to 17.0 | 14% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Matilda Dyke | HBFR | 10.1 | 7.5 to 12.7 | 3.7 to 16.5 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Sophie Alexander | CHF | 9.7 | 7.1 to 12.2 | 3.4 to 15.9 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Zoe Prowse | FB | 9.6 | 7.1 to 12.1 | 3.3 to 15.8 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Holly Ridewood | INT | 8.1 | 5.8 to 10.5 | 2.3 to 14.0 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Emily Gough | FPR | 6.2 | 4.1 to 8.3 | 0.9 to 11.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Maggie Johnstone | HFFL | 6.1 | 4.0 to 8.3 | 0.9 to 11.4 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Courtney Murphy | INT | 5.8 | 3.7 to 7.8 | 0.6 to 10.9 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Nalu Brothwell | INT | 5.6 | 3.6 to 7.7 | 0.5 to 10.7 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isabel Dawes | RR | 21.5 | 18.0 to 25.0 | 12.9 to 30.2 | 91% | 65% | 28% | 7% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Orla O'Dwyer | WR | 18.1 | 14.9 to 21.4 | 10.1 to 26.2 | 74% | 36% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Sophie Conway | C | 17.9 | 14.7 to 21.2 | 9.9 to 25.9 | 72% | 33% | 10% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Charlotte Mullins | FPR | 17.1 | 13.9 to 20.3 | 9.2 to 24.9 | 66% | 27% | 7% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Jade Ellenger | HBFR | 16.5 | 13.3 to 19.6 | 8.7 to 24.2 | 66% | 25% | 8% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Lily Postlethwaite | WL | 12.6 | 9.8 to 15.4 | 5.7 to 19.6 | 30% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Breanna Koenen | BPL | 12.4 | 9.6 to 15.2 | 5.5 to 19.3 | 29% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Natalie Grider | HBFL | 12.1 | 9.3 to 14.9 | 5.3 to 18.9 | 26% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Tahlia Hickie | RK | 11.8 | 9.1 to 14.6 | 5.0 to 18.6 | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Jennifer Dunne | FB | 11.5 | 8.8 to 14.2 | 4.8 to 18.2 | 21% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Catherine Svarc | R | 11.4 | 8.7 to 14.2 | 4.8 to 18.1 | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Shannon Campbell | CHB | 11.3 | 8.6 to 14.0 | 4.7 to 18.0 | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Ruby Svarc | HFFR | 10.4 | 7.8 to 13.0 | 4.0 to 16.9 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Lily-Rose Williamson | INT | 9.5 | 6.9 to 12.0 | 3.3 to 15.7 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Dakota Davidson | CHF | 8.8 | 6.3 to 11.2 | 2.7 to 14.8 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Shanae Davison | INT | 8.1 | 5.7 to 10.4 | 2.2 to 13.9 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Eleanor Hartill | FF | 7.7 | 5.4 to 10.0 | 2.0 to 13.4 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Marlo Graham | HFFL | 7.2 | 4.9 to 9.4 | 1.6 to 12.7 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Neasa Dooley | INT | 6.8 | 4.6 to 9.0 | 1.3 to 12.2 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Sophie Peters | INT | 6.3 | 4.1 to 8.4 | 1.0 to 11.6 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Claudia Wright | INT | 6.2 | 4.1 to 8.4 | 0.9 to 11.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |