AFLW · ROUND 1 · WINDY HILL
Essendon v Brisbane Lions
Sun 16 Aug 2026, 12:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
BRI by 19
BRI to win, 79% chance
ESS 21%79% BRI
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
BRI by 48
HIT Actual margin 48 · 28.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia Nanscawen | INT | 83 | 69 to 98 | 49 to 118 | 74% | 55% | 35% | 21% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 77 |
| Madison Prespakis | C | 82 | 67 to 96 | 47 to 116 | 71% | 52% | 32% | 18% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 95 |
| Maddison Gay | CHB | 72 | 58 to 86 | 39 to 105 | 54% | 35% | 19% | 9% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 108 |
| Stephanie Wales | RK | 69 | 56 to 83 | 37 to 102 | 49% | 33% | 14% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Stephanie Cain | RR | 69 | 56 to 83 | 37 to 102 | 48% | 32% | 14% | 7% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 17 |
| Amy Gaylor | R | 67 | 53 to 80 | 35 to 99 | 41% | 26% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 87 |
| Bonnie Toogood | FF | 66 | 53 to 80 | 34 to 98 | 41% | 25% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Chloe Adams | HBFL | 56 | 44 to 68 | 26 to 86 | 24% | 13% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 34 |
| Georgia Gee | WL | 54 | 41 to 66 | 24 to 83 | 19% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Mia Busch | HFFR | 51 | 39 to 63 | 22 to 80 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 35 |
| Maggie MacLachlan | WR | 49 | 37 to 61 | 20 to 78 | 15% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 29 |
| Alexandra Morcom | BPL | 49 | 37 to 61 | 20 to 78 | 14% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 25 |
| Sophie Alexander | CHF | 44 | 33 to 56 | 16 to 72 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Zoe Prowse | FB | 43 | 32 to 54 | 15 to 70 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 36 |
| Grace Belloni | INT | 42 | 31 to 54 | 15 to 70 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24 |
| Matilda Dyke | HBFR | 39 | 28 to 50 | 13 to 66 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19 |
| Holly Ridewood | INT | 34 | 23 to 44 | 8 to 59 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 50 |
| Maggie Johnstone | HFFL | 30 | 20 to 41 | 6 to 55 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 28 |
| Emily Gough | FPR | 28 | 18 to 37 | 4 to 51 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 38 |
| Courtney Murphy | INT | 26 | 16 to 36 | 2 to 49 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15 |
| Nalu Brothwell | INT | 26 | 16 to 35 | 2 to 49 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 41 |
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isabel Dawes | RR | 91 | 76 to 106 | 55 to 127 | 83% | 70% | 51% | 32% | 18% | inside our 90% range: 68 |
| Sophie Conway | C | 78 | 64 to 92 | 44 to 112 | 63% | 45% | 30% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Charlotte Mullins | FPR | 73 | 60 to 87 | 40 to 107 | 56% | 39% | 22% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Orla O'Dwyer | WR | 70 | 57 to 84 | 38 to 103 | 50% | 33% | 15% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Jade Ellenger | HBFR | 67 | 54 to 81 | 35 to 99 | 42% | 27% | 14% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 83 |
| Tahlia Hickie | RK | 66 | 52 to 79 | 34 to 98 | 40% | 24% | 12% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 51 |
| Catherine Svarc | R | 62 | 49 to 75 | 31 to 93 | 31% | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 85 |
| Breanna Koenen | BPL | 52 | 40 to 65 | 23 to 82 | 14% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 83 |
| Natalie Grider | HBFL | 52 | 40 to 64 | 22 to 81 | 14% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Lily Postlethwaite | WL | 50 | 38 to 62 | 21 to 80 | 16% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 67 |
| Ruby Svarc | HFFR | 50 | 38 to 62 | 21 to 79 | 16% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 48 |
| Shannon Campbell | CHB | 49 | 37 to 60 | 20 to 77 | 13% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Lily-Rose Williamson | INT | 48 | 36 to 60 | 19 to 76 | 13% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 75 |
| Dakota Davidson | CHF | 47 | 35 to 59 | 19 to 76 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 77 |
| Jennifer Dunne | FB | 45 | 33 to 56 | 17 to 73 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 25 |
| Eleanor Hartill | FF | 38 | 27 to 49 | 11 to 64 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 51 |
| Shanae Davison | INT | 34 | 24 to 45 | 8 to 60 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 28 |
| Marlo Graham | HFFL | 33 | 23 to 44 | 8 to 59 | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 68 |
| Neasa Dooley | INT | 32 | 21 to 42 | 7 to 57 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 54 |
| Sophie Peters | INT | 28 | 18 to 38 | 4 to 53 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 29 |
| Claudia Wright | INT | 28 | 18 to 38 | 4 to 52 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 26 |