AFLW · ROUND 1 · WINDY HILL
Essendon v Brisbane Lions
Sun 16 Aug 2026, 12:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
BRI by 19
BRI to win, 79% chance
ESS 21%79% BRI
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
BRI by 48
HIT Actual margin 48 · 28.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bonnie Toogood | FF | 0.8 | 0.4 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 64% | 25% | 10% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Sophie Alexander | CHF | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 30% | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Emily Gough | FPR | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Georgia Gee | WL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 20% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Maggie Johnstone | HFFL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 25% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mia Busch | HFFR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Zoe Prowse | FB | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 25% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Amy Gaylor | R | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Chloe Adams | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Courtney Murphy | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Georgia Nanscawen | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 13% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Grace Belloni | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Holly Ridewood | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Madison Prespakis | C | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Maggie MacLachlan | WR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nalu Brothwell | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Stephanie Cain | RR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Alexandra Morcom | BPL | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Maddison Gay | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Matilda Dyke | HBFR | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Stephanie Wales | RK | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dakota Davidson | CHF | 1.2 | 0.8 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 84% | 30% | 15% | 6% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Ruby Svarc | HFFR | 0.8 | 0.4 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 43% | 20% | 5% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Charlotte Mullins | FPR | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 43% | 13% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Neasa Dooley | INT | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 46% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Sophie Conway | C | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 57% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Eleanor Hartill | FF | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 39% | 12% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Orla O'Dwyer | WR | 0.4 | 0.2 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 39% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Marlo Graham | HFFL | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 20% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Catherine Svarc | R | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 24% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Isabel Dawes | RR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 25% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lily Postlethwaite | WL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lily-Rose Williamson | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Claudia Wright | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jade Ellenger | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Shanae Davison | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Shannon Campbell | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sophie Peters | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 15% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Tahlia Hickie | RK | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Breanna Koenen | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jennifer Dunne | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Natalie Grider | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |