AFLW · ROUND 1 · WINDY HILL
Essendon v Brisbane Lions
Sun 16 Aug 2026, 12:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
BRI by 19
BRI to win, 79% chance
ESS 21%79% BRI
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
BRI by 48
HIT Actual margin 48 · 28.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maddison Gay | CHB | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.0 to 6.7 | 54% | 38% | 22% | 12% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Bonnie Toogood | FF | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.6 | 49% | 33% | 20% | 11% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Madison Prespakis | C | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 38% | 24% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Amy Gaylor | R | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 24% | 12% | 6% | 2% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Zoe Prowse | FB | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 30% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sophie Alexander | CHF | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 24% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Stephanie Cain | RR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 24% | 12% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Chloe Adams | HBFL | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 20% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Georgia Gee | WL | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 17% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Maggie MacLachlan | WR | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 14% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Mia Busch | HFFR | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 24% | 12% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Stephanie Wales | RK | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 17% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Matilda Dyke | HBFR | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 12% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Alexandra Morcom | BPL | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 12% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Georgia Nanscawen | INT | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Grace Belloni | INT | 1.2 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Courtney Murphy | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Emily Gough | FPR | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 9% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Holly Ridewood | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 8% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Maggie Johnstone | HFFL | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Nalu Brothwell | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breanna Koenen | BPL | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.0 to 6.8 | 54% | 39% | 24% | 12% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Charlotte Mullins | FPR | 2.8 | 1.6 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 47% | 24% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Sophie Conway | C | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 41% | 24% | 13% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jade Ellenger | HBFR | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 39% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Lily Postlethwaite | WL | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 38% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Shannon Campbell | CHB | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 33% | 17% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jennifer Dunne | FB | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 33% | 20% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Dakota Davidson | CHF | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 33% | 20% | 9% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Isabel Dawes | RR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 24% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Natalie Grider | HBFL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 29% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Tahlia Hickie | RK | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 24% | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Orla O'Dwyer | WR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 15% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Eleanor Hartill | FF | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Lily-Rose Williamson | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Ruby Svarc | HFFR | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 18% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Neasa Dooley | INT | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 7% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Shanae Davison | INT | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Catherine Svarc | R | 1.1 | 0.3 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 12% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Claudia Wright | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Marlo Graham | HFFL | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Sophie Peters | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |