AFLW · ROUND 1 · WINDY HILL
Essendon v Brisbane Lions
Sun 16 Aug 2026, 12:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
BRI by 19
BRI to win, 79% chance
ESS 21%79% BRI
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
BRI by 48
HIT Actual margin 48 · 28.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia Nanscawen | INT | 7.1 | 5.0 to 9.1 | 2.6 to 11.5 | 96% | 88% | 77% | 68% | 56% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Stephanie Cain | RR | 5.3 | 3.5 to 7.0 | 1.4 to 9.1 | 84% | 71% | 56% | 40% | 31% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Chloe Adams | HBFL | 4.5 | 2.9 to 6.1 | 0.9 to 8.0 | 74% | 56% | 45% | 31% | 15% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Amy Gaylor | R | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.6 | 0.7 to 7.5 | 71% | 56% | 44% | 27% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Stephanie Wales | RK | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.4 | 0.5 to 7.2 | 68% | 49% | 37% | 24% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Madison Prespakis | C | 3.6 | 2.2 to 5.1 | 0.4 to 6.8 | 64% | 49% | 31% | 15% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Mia Busch | HFFR | 3.5 | 2.1 to 4.9 | 0.3 to 6.6 | 56% | 43% | 27% | 14% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Alexandra Morcom | BPL | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.0 | 56% | 32% | 23% | 11% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Bonnie Toogood | FF | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 40% | 24% | 13% | 7% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Georgia Gee | WL | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 53% | 32% | 23% | 11% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Maddison Gay | CHB | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 53% | 32% | 23% | 11% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Matilda Dyke | HBFR | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 53% | 32% | 23% | 11% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Maggie MacLachlan | WR | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 48% | 27% | 15% | 8% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Grace Belloni | INT | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 49% | 30% | 15% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Holly Ridewood | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 40% | 24% | 11% | 5% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Maggie Johnstone | HFFL | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 46% | 24% | 11% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Zoe Prowse | FB | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 45% | 24% | 11% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Courtney Murphy | INT | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 30% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Emily Gough | FPR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 38% | 18% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Nalu Brothwell | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 38% | 22% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Sophie Alexander | CHF | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 32% | 15% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isabel Dawes | RR | 7.0 | 5.0 to 9.0 | 2.5 to 11.4 | 94% | 85% | 76% | 65% | 53% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Catherine Svarc | R | 6.0 | 4.1 to 7.8 | 1.9 to 10.1 | 88% | 78% | 68% | 53% | 46% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Sophie Conway | C | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.0 | 0.9 to 8.0 | 74% | 56% | 42% | 31% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Charlotte Mullins | FPR | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.9 | 0.8 to 7.8 | 74% | 56% | 47% | 31% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jade Ellenger | HBFR | 4.2 | 2.7 to 5.8 | 0.8 to 7.7 | 74% | 56% | 46% | 31% | 16% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Lily-Rose Williamson | INT | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.5 to 7.2 | 67% | 49% | 37% | 24% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Orla O'Dwyer | WR | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.3 to 6.5 | 55% | 40% | 24% | 11% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ruby Svarc | HFFR | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.2 to 6.2 | 49% | 32% | 19% | 11% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Tahlia Hickie | RK | 3.1 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.2 to 6.1 | 49% | 32% | 15% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Natalie Grider | HBFL | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 61% | 42% | 24% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Marlo Graham | HFFL | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 42% | 24% | 11% | 7% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Eleanor Hartill | FF | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 40% | 24% | 11% | 5% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Lily Postlethwaite | WL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 49% | 29% | 13% | 7% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Breanna Koenen | BPL | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 31% | 14% | 7% | 5% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Claudia Wright | INT | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 32% | 17% | 7% | 5% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Sophie Peters | INT | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 38% | 15% | 8% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jennifer Dunne | FB | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Shanae Davison | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 28% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Dakota Davidson | CHF | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 24% | 9% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Neasa Dooley | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 23% | 9% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Shannon Campbell | CHB | 1.5 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 14% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |