AFLW · ROUND 1 · COCKBURN ARC OVAL
Fremantle v Port Adelaide
Sun 16 Aug 2026, 2:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
PA by 0
PA to win, 51% chance
FRE 49%51% PA
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
PA by 21
HIT Actual margin 21 · 20.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aisling McCarthy | R | 23.2 | 19.6 to 26.8 | 14.3 to 32.1 | 95% | 76% | 40% | 13% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 28.0 |
| Gabrielle Newton | RK | 20.3 | 16.9 to 23.7 | 11.8 to 28.7 | 87% | 55% | 21% | 4% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 25.0 |
| Kiara Bowers | C | 20.0 | 16.6 to 23.4 | 11.6 to 28.4 | 85% | 53% | 19% | 4% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Mim Strom | RR | 18.4 | 15.1 to 21.7 | 10.3 to 26.5 | 77% | 38% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Hayley Miller | CHF | 14.3 | 11.3 to 17.2 | 7.0 to 21.6 | 42% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Megan Kauffman | HFFL | 12.6 | 9.8 to 15.4 | 5.7 to 19.6 | 30% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Orlagh Lally | WL | 12.2 | 9.4 to 15.0 | 5.3 to 19.0 | 27% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Laura Pugh | FB | 11.7 | 8.9 to 14.4 | 4.9 to 18.4 | 21% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Jessica Low | BPL | 11.3 | 8.6 to 13.9 | 4.6 to 17.9 | 21% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Sarah Verrier | WR | 10.5 | 7.9 to 13.1 | 4.0 to 16.9 | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Ashleigh Brazill | HBFR | 10.2 | 7.6 to 12.7 | 3.8 to 16.5 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Eden Zanker | FF | 10.2 | 7.6 to 12.8 | 3.8 to 16.6 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Gabby O'Sullivan | INT | 10.1 | 7.6 to 12.7 | 3.8 to 16.5 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Matilda Banfield | HFFR | 8.8 | 6.4 to 11.3 | 2.8 to 14.8 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Angelique Stannett | INT | 8.7 | 6.3 to 11.2 | 2.7 to 14.8 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Indiana West | HBFL | 8.3 | 5.9 to 10.7 | 2.4 to 14.2 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Aoife Healy | CHB | 7.3 | 5.0 to 9.5 | 1.7 to 12.8 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Bella Smith | FPR | 7.2 | 4.9 to 9.4 | 1.6 to 12.8 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Indi Strom | INT | 6.6 | 4.4 to 8.8 | 1.2 to 12.0 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Tunisha Kikoak | INT | 6.2 | 4.0 to 8.3 | 0.9 to 11.4 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Lily Johnson | INT | 6.1 | 4.0 to 8.2 | 0.9 to 11.3 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 14.0 |
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abbey Dowrick | C | 18.9 | 15.6 to 22.2 | 10.7 to 27.1 | 78% | 40% | 13% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Ashleigh Woodland | R | 18.0 | 14.7 to 21.2 | 9.9 to 26.0 | 73% | 33% | 10% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Matilda Scholz | RK | 17.1 | 13.9 to 20.3 | 9.2 to 25.0 | 67% | 27% | 8% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Ella Heads | HBFR | 13.8 | 10.9 to 16.8 | 6.6 to 21.0 | 37% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Molly Brooksby | WR | 12.7 | 9.9 to 15.5 | 5.7 to 19.7 | 30% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Shineah Goody | INT | 11.8 | 9.1 to 14.6 | 5.1 to 18.6 | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Maria Moloney | RR | 11.2 | 8.5 to 13.9 | 4.6 to 17.8 | 20% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Indy Tahau | HFFL | 10.3 | 7.7 to 12.9 | 3.9 to 16.7 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Ella Boag | WL | 10.1 | 7.5 to 12.7 | 3.7 to 16.4 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Gemma Houghton | FF | 10.0 | 7.4 to 12.5 | 3.6 to 16.3 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Justine Mules-Robinson | CHF | 9.6 | 7.1 to 12.2 | 3.4 to 15.9 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Kirsty Lamb | INT | 9.6 | 7.1 to 12.2 | 3.4 to 15.9 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Cheyenne Hammond | CHB | 8.2 | 5.8 to 10.5 | 2.3 to 14.0 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Teagan Germech | HBFL | 8.2 | 5.8 to 10.6 | 2.3 to 14.1 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Katelyn Pope | HFFR | 8.1 | 5.7 to 10.5 | 2.3 to 14.0 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Amelie Borg | BPL | 7.4 | 5.1 to 9.7 | 1.8 to 13.0 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Olivia Crane | FB | 7.2 | 4.9 to 9.5 | 1.6 to 12.8 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Ebony O'Dea | INT | 6.5 | 4.3 to 8.6 | 1.1 to 11.8 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Lauren Young | FPR | 6.3 | 4.1 to 8.4 | 1.0 to 11.6 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Sophie Eaton | INT | 5.8 | 3.8 to 7.9 | 0.7 to 11.0 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Emily Elkington | INT | 5.7 | 3.6 to 7.8 | 0.6 to 10.8 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |