AFLW · ROUND 1 · COCKBURN ARC OVAL
Fremantle v Port Adelaide
Sun 16 Aug 2026, 2:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
PA by 0
PA to win, 51% chance
FRE 49%51% PA
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
PA by 21
HIT Actual margin 21 · 20.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kiara Bowers | C | 107 | 91 to 123 | 69 to 145 | 95% | 88% | 77% | 61% | 44% | inside our 50% range: 109 |
| Mim Strom | RR | 99 | 83 to 114 | 62 to 136 | 91% | 80% | 65% | 46% | 30% | inside our 50% range: 84 |
| Gabrielle Newton | RK | 97 | 82 to 113 | 60 to 134 | 89% | 78% | 62% | 44% | 29% | inside our 50% range: 104 |
| Aisling McCarthy | R | 94 | 79 to 109 | 58 to 130 | 86% | 74% | 56% | 37% | 23% | inside our 50% range: 97 |
| Hayley Miller | CHF | 62 | 49 to 75 | 31 to 94 | 32% | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 31 |
| Megan Kauffman | HFFL | 52 | 40 to 64 | 23 to 82 | 14% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 68 |
| Eden Zanker | FF | 51 | 39 to 63 | 22 to 80 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 17 |
| Orlagh Lally | WL | 50 | 38 to 62 | 21 to 78 | 15% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Sarah Verrier | WR | 49 | 37 to 61 | 20 to 78 | 14% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 38 |
| Jessica Low | BPL | 44 | 33 to 56 | 16 to 72 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Gabby O'Sullivan | INT | 43 | 32 to 55 | 16 to 71 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19 |
| Angelique Stannett | INT | 43 | 32 to 54 | 16 to 71 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 35 |
| Matilda Banfield | HFFR | 42 | 31 to 54 | 15 to 70 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 67 |
| Laura Pugh | FB | 42 | 31 to 53 | 15 to 69 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 41 |
| Ashleigh Brazill | HBFR | 41 | 30 to 53 | 14 to 69 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 56 |
| Bella Smith | FPR | 34 | 24 to 45 | 9 to 60 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 34 |
| Aoife Healy | CHB | 32 | 22 to 43 | 7 to 58 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 52 |
| Indiana West | HBFL | 32 | 22 to 42 | 7 to 57 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 40 |
| Indi Strom | INT | 31 | 21 to 41 | 6 to 56 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 25 |
| Tunisha Kikoak | INT | 31 | 21 to 41 | 6 to 56 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15 |
| Lily Johnson | INT | 27 | 17 to 36 | 3 to 50 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 63 |
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matilda Scholz | RK | 96 | 80 to 111 | 59 to 132 | 87% | 76% | 59% | 40% | 25% | inside our 50% range: 97 |
| Abbey Dowrick | C | 90 | 75 to 104 | 54 to 125 | 81% | 67% | 48% | 30% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 90 |
| Ashleigh Woodland | R | 82 | 67 to 96 | 47 to 116 | 71% | 52% | 33% | 18% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 100 |
| Ella Heads | HBFR | 62 | 49 to 75 | 31 to 94 | 32% | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Shineah Goody | INT | 58 | 46 to 71 | 28 to 89 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Molly Brooksby | WR | 57 | 44 to 70 | 27 to 87 | 26% | 14% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Maria Moloney | RR | 53 | 40 to 65 | 23 to 82 | 15% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Indy Tahau | HFFL | 52 | 40 to 64 | 22 to 81 | 14% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Ella Boag | WL | 48 | 36 to 59 | 19 to 76 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 73 |
| Gemma Houghton | FF | 47 | 35 to 59 | 18 to 75 | 10% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Justine Mules-Robinson | CHF | 46 | 34 to 58 | 18 to 74 | 9% | 4% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 27 |
| Kirsty Lamb | INT | 43 | 31 to 54 | 15 to 70 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 29 |
| Katelyn Pope | HFFR | 42 | 31 to 53 | 15 to 69 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 77 |
| Cheyenne Hammond | CHB | 38 | 27 to 49 | 12 to 65 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21 |
| Teagan Germech | HBFL | 36 | 25 to 47 | 10 to 62 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 74 |
| Amelie Borg | BPL | 32 | 22 to 42 | 7 to 57 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 30 |
| Lauren Young | FPR | 32 | 22 to 42 | 7 to 57 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 60 |
| Ebony O'Dea | INT | 30 | 20 to 41 | 6 to 55 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 39 |
| Olivia Crane | FB | 30 | 20 to 40 | 5 to 54 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 22 |
| Sophie Eaton | INT | 28 | 18 to 38 | 4 to 52 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 36 |
| Emily Elkington | INT | 27 | 17 to 37 | 4 to 51 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 32 |