AFLW · ROUND 1 · COCKBURN ARC OVAL
Fremantle v Port Adelaide
Sun 16 Aug 2026, 2:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
PA by 0
PA to win, 51% chance
FRE 49%51% PA
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
PA by 21
HIT Actual margin 21 · 20.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eden Zanker | FF | 1.2 | 0.7 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 70% | 30% | 15% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Hayley Miller | CHF | 1.2 | 0.7 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 70% | 30% | 15% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Aisling McCarthy | R | 0.8 | 0.4 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 42% | 19% | 5% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Bella Smith | FPR | 0.6 | 0.3 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 43% | 20% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Gabby O'Sullivan | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 39% | 11% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Matilda Banfield | HFFR | 0.4 | 0.2 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 30% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Angelique Stannett | INT | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 25% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Megan Kauffman | HFFL | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tunisha Kikoak | INT | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 30% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Kiara Bowers | C | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 25% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Orlagh Lally | WL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 15% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Aoife Healy | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Gabrielle Newton | RK | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 15% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Indi Strom | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jessica Low | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lily Johnson | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mim Strom | RR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sarah Verrier | WR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ashleigh Brazill | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Indiana West | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Laura Pugh | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indy Tahau | HFFL | 1.3 | 0.8 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 84% | 30% | 15% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Gemma Houghton | FF | 1.2 | 0.7 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 70% | 30% | 15% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Matilda Scholz | RK | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 30% | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Abbey Dowrick | C | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Justine Mules-Robinson | CHF | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 39% | 11% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Katelyn Pope | HFFR | 0.4 | 0.2 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 30% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Lauren Young | FPR | 0.4 | 0.2 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 39% | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Ashleigh Woodland | R | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 39% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Ella Boag | WL | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ella Heads | HBFR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 20% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Kirsty Lamb | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Shineah Goody | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 19% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ebony O'Dea | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Emily Elkington | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Maria Moloney | RR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Molly Brooksby | WR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Olivia Crane | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sophie Eaton | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Amelie Borg | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Cheyenne Hammond | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Teagan Germech | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |