AFLW · ROUND 1 · COCKBURN ARC OVAL
Fremantle v Port Adelaide
Sun 16 Aug 2026, 2:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
PA by 0
PA to win, 51% chance
FRE 49%51% PA
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
PA by 21
HIT Actual margin 21 · 20.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eden Zanker | FF | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 48% | 25% | 17% | 9% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Hayley Miller | CHF | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 46% | 24% | 15% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Gabrielle Newton | RK | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 29% | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Aisling McCarthy | R | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 33% | 20% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Mim Strom | RR | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 32% | 20% | 9% | 3% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Kiara Bowers | C | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 22% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Ashleigh Brazill | HBFR | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 14% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Bella Smith | FPR | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 14% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Matilda Banfield | HFFR | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 13% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Indi Strom | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Orlagh Lally | WL | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Sarah Verrier | WR | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 15% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Gabby O'Sullivan | INT | 1.1 | 0.2 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Indiana West | HBFL | 1.1 | 0.3 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 12% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jessica Low | BPL | 1.1 | 0.3 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 12% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Megan Kauffman | HFFL | 1.1 | 0.3 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 12% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Tunisha Kikoak | INT | 1.1 | 0.3 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 11% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Angelique Stannett | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Aoife Healy | CHB | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Laura Pugh | FB | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Lily Johnson | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ella Heads | HBFR | 3.2 | 1.9 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.6 | 50% | 37% | 20% | 11% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Matilda Scholz | RK | 3.2 | 1.9 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.6 | 49% | 34% | 20% | 11% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Indy Tahau | HFFL | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 30% | 19% | 9% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Gemma Houghton | FF | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Abbey Dowrick | C | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 21% | 10% | 4% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Ashleigh Woodland | R | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 24% | 12% | 4% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Molly Brooksby | WR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 17% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ella Boag | WL | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Justine Mules-Robinson | CHF | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 20% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Maria Moloney | RR | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Shineah Goody | INT | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Teagan Germech | HBFL | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Kirsty Lamb | INT | 1.1 | 0.2 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Amelie Borg | BPL | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Cheyenne Hammond | CHB | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 8% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Ebony O'Dea | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Emily Elkington | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Katelyn Pope | HFFR | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 9% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Lauren Young | FPR | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 9% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Olivia Crane | FB | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Sophie Eaton | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |