AFLW · ROUND 1 · COCKBURN ARC OVAL
Fremantle v Port Adelaide
Sun 16 Aug 2026, 2:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
PA by 0
PA to win, 51% chance
FRE 49%51% PA
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
PA by 21
HIT Actual margin 21 · 20.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kiara Bowers | C | 10.7 | 8.2 to 13.3 | 5.2 to 16.3 | 100% | 100% | 97% | 94% | 86% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Mim Strom | RR | 6.7 | 4.7 to 8.6 | 2.3 to 11.0 | 92% | 84% | 73% | 62% | 49% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Gabrielle Newton | RK | 6.3 | 4.3 to 8.2 | 2.1 to 10.5 | 91% | 84% | 71% | 56% | 46% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Aisling McCarthy | R | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.6 | 1.2 to 8.6 | 79% | 65% | 49% | 32% | 24% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Matilda Banfield | HFFR | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.3 to 6.4 | 64% | 46% | 28% | 14% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Orlagh Lally | WL | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.2 to 6.4 | 61% | 45% | 27% | 13% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Angelique Stannett | INT | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.2 to 6.2 | 49% | 32% | 19% | 11% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Sarah Verrier | WR | 3.2 | 1.9 to 4.6 | 0.2 to 6.3 | 56% | 40% | 24% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Megan Kauffman | HFFL | 3.1 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.1 to 6.1 | 49% | 32% | 15% | 10% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jessica Low | BPL | 2.7 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 56% | 32% | 21% | 8% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Hayley Miller | CHF | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 53% | 32% | 15% | 9% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Gabby O'Sullivan | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 46% | 24% | 11% | 6% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Aoife Healy | CHB | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 40% | 19% | 8% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Indi Strom | INT | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 37% | 22% | 8% | 5% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Indiana West | HBFL | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 38% | 15% | 8% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Tunisha Kikoak | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Ashleigh Brazill | HBFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 40% | 22% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Lily Johnson | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 32% | 15% | 9% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Bella Smith | FPR | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 27% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Laura Pugh | FB | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 28% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Eden Zanker | FF | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 19% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abbey Dowrick | C | 6.6 | 4.6 to 8.6 | 2.3 to 10.9 | 91% | 84% | 72% | 61% | 49% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Ashleigh Woodland | R | 5.5 | 3.7 to 7.3 | 1.5 to 9.4 | 85% | 73% | 57% | 49% | 35% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Shineah Goody | INT | 5.2 | 3.5 to 7.0 | 1.4 to 9.0 | 84% | 71% | 53% | 40% | 27% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Maria Moloney | RR | 4.5 | 2.9 to 6.1 | 0.9 to 8.1 | 74% | 56% | 46% | 31% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Ella Heads | HBFR | 3.5 | 2.1 to 4.9 | 0.3 to 6.6 | 56% | 43% | 27% | 14% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Ella Boag | WL | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.3 to 6.5 | 53% | 40% | 24% | 11% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Katelyn Pope | HFFR | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.2 to 6.4 | 64% | 46% | 27% | 13% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Cheyenne Hammond | CHB | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.2 to 6.2 | 53% | 38% | 24% | 11% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Matilda Scholz | RK | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.2 to 6.2 | 50% | 32% | 21% | 11% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Molly Brooksby | WR | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.2 to 6.3 | 56% | 40% | 24% | 11% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Kirsty Lamb | INT | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.0 | 56% | 38% | 24% | 12% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Emily Elkington | INT | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 57% | 38% | 23% | 8% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Justine Mules-Robinson | CHF | 2.7 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 56% | 35% | 23% | 8% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Indy Tahau | HFFL | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 53% | 32% | 15% | 9% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ebony O'Dea | INT | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 40% | 24% | 11% | 7% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Teagan Germech | HBFL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 46% | 24% | 11% | 6% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Lauren Young | FPR | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 32% | 15% | 7% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Gemma Houghton | FF | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 32% | 17% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Olivia Crane | FB | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Sophie Eaton | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Amelie Borg | BPL | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |