AFLW · ROUND 1 · PEOPLE FIRST STADIUM
Gold Coast SUNS v Western Bulldogs
Sat 15 Aug 2026, 7:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
WB by 21
WB to win, 81% chance
GCS 19%81% WB
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WB by 26
HIT Actual margin 26 · 5.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Rowbottom | R | 24.6 | 20.9 to 28.3 | 15.5 to 33.8 | 96% | 82% | 50% | 19% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Lucy Single | C | 20.3 | 16.9 to 23.7 | 11.8 to 28.7 | 87% | 55% | 20% | 4% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Niamh McLaughlin | HBFL | 20.0 | 16.6 to 23.4 | 11.6 to 28.4 | 85% | 53% | 19% | 4% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 25.0 |
| Anne Hatchard | RR | 17.7 | 14.5 to 21.0 | 9.7 to 25.7 | 71% | 32% | 9% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Lily Mithen | WL | 14.8 | 11.8 to 17.8 | 7.4 to 22.3 | 51% | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Daisy D'Arcy | HBFR | 13.8 | 10.9 to 16.7 | 6.6 to 21.0 | 37% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Havana Harris | CHF | 13.0 | 10.2 to 15.9 | 6.0 to 20.1 | 32% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Clara Fitzpatrick | FB | 11.4 | 8.7 to 14.1 | 4.7 to 18.0 | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Annabel Kievit | BPL | 9.2 | 6.8 to 11.7 | 3.1 to 15.4 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Darcie Davies | INT | 9.1 | 6.7 to 11.6 | 3.0 to 15.2 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Mia Salisbury | INT | 8.4 | 6.0 to 10.7 | 2.4 to 14.3 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Mikayla Nurse | WR | 7.7 | 5.3 to 10.0 | 1.9 to 13.4 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Georja Davies | CHB | 7.2 | 5.0 to 9.5 | 1.6 to 12.8 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Paige Price | RK | 6.7 | 4.5 to 8.9 | 1.3 to 12.1 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Ava Usher | HFFR | 6.5 | 4.3 to 8.7 | 1.1 to 11.9 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Dekota Baron | FF | 6.5 | 4.3 to 8.7 | 1.1 to 11.9 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Heidi Talbot | FPR | 6.5 | 4.3 to 8.7 | 1.1 to 11.9 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Lily Quigley | HFFL | 6.5 | 4.3 to 8.7 | 1.1 to 11.9 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Alannah Welsh | INT | 5.9 | 3.8 to 8.0 | 0.7 to 11.0 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Bronte Parker | INT | 5.9 | 3.8 to 8.0 | 0.7 to 11.0 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Sunny Lappin | INT | 5.9 | 3.8 to 8.0 | 0.7 to 11.0 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 14.0 |
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isabelle Pritchard | RR | 21.4 | 17.9 to 24.9 | 12.8 to 30.1 | 91% | 64% | 27% | 7% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Ellie Blackburn | R | 19.0 | 15.7 to 22.3 | 10.8 to 27.2 | 79% | 41% | 13% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Jess Fitzgerald | HBFL | 16.3 | 13.2 to 19.4 | 8.6 to 24.0 | 63% | 23% | 6% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 30.0 |
| Mikala Cann | C | 15.6 | 12.5 to 18.6 | 8.0 to 23.1 | 58% | 20% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Rylie Wilcox | WR | 13.4 | 10.5 to 16.3 | 6.3 to 20.5 | 36% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Britney Gutknecht | CHB | 13.1 | 10.3 to 16.0 | 6.1 to 20.2 | 33% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Jasmyn Smith | WL | 12.6 | 9.8 to 15.4 | 5.7 to 19.6 | 30% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Elaine Grigg | HFFL | 11.5 | 8.7 to 14.2 | 4.8 to 18.1 | 20% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Elle Bennetts | INT | 11.3 | 8.6 to 14.0 | 4.6 to 17.9 | 21% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Dominique Carruthers | INT | 11.2 | 8.5 to 13.9 | 4.6 to 17.9 | 20% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Isabella Grant | HBFR | 11.0 | 8.3 to 13.6 | 4.4 to 17.6 | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Alice Edmonds | RK | 10.5 | 7.9 to 13.2 | 4.1 to 17.0 | 14% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Sarah Poustie | INT | 10.5 | 7.9 to 13.1 | 4.1 to 17.0 | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Kaylee Kimber | FB | 10.2 | 7.6 to 12.8 | 3.8 to 16.6 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Deanna Berry | FPR | 9.9 | 7.3 to 12.4 | 3.6 to 16.2 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Emma McDonald | FF | 9.3 | 6.8 to 11.8 | 3.2 to 15.5 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Heidi Woodley | HFFR | 9.1 | 6.7 to 11.6 | 3.0 to 15.3 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Sarah Hartwig | CHF | 9.1 | 6.6 to 11.6 | 3.0 to 15.2 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Vaomua Laloifi | BPL | 8.8 | 6.4 to 11.3 | 2.8 to 14.9 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Cleo Buttifant | INT | 6.8 | 4.6 to 9.1 | 1.4 to 12.3 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Amaia Wain | INT | 5.9 | 3.8 to 8.0 | 0.7 to 11.1 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |