AFLW · ROUND 1 · PEOPLE FIRST STADIUM
Gold Coast SUNS v Western Bulldogs
Sat 15 Aug 2026, 7:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
WB by 21
WB to win, 81% chance
GCS 19%81% WB
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WB by 26
HIT Actual margin 26 · 5.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Rowbottom | R | 97 | 82 to 112 | 60 to 134 | 89% | 78% | 62% | 43% | 28% | inside our 50% range: 91 |
| Anne Hatchard | RR | 82 | 68 to 96 | 47 to 116 | 71% | 52% | 33% | 18% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 76 |
| Lucy Single | C | 81 | 66 to 95 | 46 to 115 | 70% | 50% | 32% | 17% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 90 |
| Niamh McLaughlin | HBFL | 75 | 61 to 89 | 42 to 108 | 58% | 40% | 26% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 77 |
| Lily Mithen | WL | 60 | 48 to 73 | 29 to 91 | 27% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 36 |
| Daisy D'Arcy | HBFR | 60 | 47 to 72 | 29 to 90 | 26% | 12% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Havana Harris | CHF | 58 | 45 to 70 | 27 to 88 | 22% | 11% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 86 |
| Darcie Davies | INT | 50 | 38 to 62 | 21 to 79 | 16% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 34 |
| Clara Fitzpatrick | FB | 46 | 34 to 57 | 18 to 74 | 9% | 4% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 29 |
| Annabel Kievit | BPL | 42 | 30 to 53 | 14 to 69 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 39 |
| Paige Price | RK | 40 | 29 to 51 | 13 to 66 | 4% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 29 |
| Mikayla Nurse | WR | 37 | 26 to 48 | 11 to 63 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13 |
| Mia Salisbury | INT | 35 | 24 to 46 | 9 to 61 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19 |
| Dekota Baron | FF | 33 | 22 to 43 | 8 to 58 | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 31 |
| Georja Davies | CHB | 33 | 22 to 43 | 8 to 58 | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 26 |
| Ava Usher | HFFR | 33 | 22 to 43 | 8 to 58 | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 78 |
| Lily Quigley | HFFL | 33 | 22 to 43 | 8 to 58 | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10 |
| Heidi Talbot | FPR | 32 | 22 to 42 | 7 to 57 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 28 |
| Alannah Welsh | INT | 28 | 18 to 38 | 4 to 52 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 28 |
| Bronte Parker | INT | 28 | 18 to 38 | 4 to 52 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 40 |
| Sunny Lappin | INT | 28 | 18 to 38 | 4 to 52 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 47 |
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isabelle Pritchard | RR | 80 | 66 to 95 | 46 to 115 | 70% | 50% | 31% | 17% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 48 |
| Ellie Blackburn | R | 79 | 64 to 93 | 45 to 113 | 64% | 46% | 32% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 70 |
| Alice Edmonds | RK | 68 | 55 to 82 | 36 to 100 | 44% | 28% | 16% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Mikala Cann | C | 68 | 55 to 81 | 36 to 100 | 44% | 28% | 15% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 47 |
| Jess Fitzgerald | HBFL | 67 | 54 to 81 | 35 to 100 | 42% | 27% | 14% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 87 |
| Rylie Wilcox | WR | 59 | 46 to 72 | 28 to 90 | 25% | 12% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Sarah Poustie | INT | 56 | 43 to 68 | 25 to 86 | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 30 |
| Jasmyn Smith | WL | 54 | 42 to 67 | 24 to 84 | 20% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 19 |
| Britney Gutknecht | CHB | 54 | 42 to 66 | 24 to 84 | 20% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Elaine Grigg | HFFL | 54 | 41 to 66 | 24 to 83 | 19% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 30 |
| Dominique Carruthers | INT | 50 | 38 to 62 | 21 to 79 | 16% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 37 |
| Sarah Hartwig | CHF | 48 | 36 to 60 | 20 to 77 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Elle Bennetts | INT | 48 | 36 to 59 | 19 to 76 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Emma McDonald | FF | 48 | 36 to 59 | 19 to 76 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Isabella Grant | HBFR | 47 | 35 to 59 | 18 to 75 | 10% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 10 |
| Heidi Woodley | HFFR | 45 | 33 to 56 | 17 to 73 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 58 |
| Deanna Berry | FPR | 42 | 31 to 54 | 15 to 70 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 32 |
| Kaylee Kimber | FB | 38 | 27 to 49 | 12 to 65 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 0 |
| Vaomua Laloifi | BPL | 32 | 22 to 43 | 7 to 58 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20 |
| Cleo Buttifant | INT | 30 | 20 to 41 | 6 to 55 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 65 |
| Amaia Wain | INT | 30 | 20 to 40 | 5 to 54 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 29 |