AFLW · ROUND 1 · PEOPLE FIRST STADIUM
Gold Coast SUNS v Western Bulldogs
Sat 15 Aug 2026, 7:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
WB by 21
WB to win, 81% chance
GCS 19%81% WB
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WB by 26
HIT Actual margin 26 · 5.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Havana Harris | CHF | 0.9 | 0.5 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 57% | 20% | 10% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Anne Hatchard | RR | 0.6 | 0.3 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 30% | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ava Usher | HFFR | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Dekota Baron | FF | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 25% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Heidi Talbot | FPR | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Lily Quigley | HFFL | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Darcie Davies | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 11% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Niamh McLaughlin | HBFL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 15% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Alannah Welsh | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 15% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Annabel Kievit | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Bronte Parker | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 15% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Charlie Rowbottom | R | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Daisy D'Arcy | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Georja Davies | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lily Mithen | WL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lucy Single | C | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mia Salisbury | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mikayla Nurse | WR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Paige Price | RK | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sunny Lappin | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 15% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Clara Fitzpatrick | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emma McDonald | FF | 1.2 | 0.7 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 70% | 30% | 15% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sarah Hartwig | CHF | 1.2 | 0.7 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 70% | 30% | 15% | 4% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Deanna Berry | FPR | 0.7 | 0.4 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 55% | 20% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ellie Blackburn | R | 0.7 | 0.4 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 57% | 20% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Elaine Grigg | HFFL | 0.6 | 0.3 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 36% | 15% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Heidi Woodley | HFFR | 0.6 | 0.3 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 43% | 15% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Isabelle Pritchard | RR | 0.4 | 0.2 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 30% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Rylie Wilcox | WR | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 20% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Alice Edmonds | RK | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 9% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jess Fitzgerald | HBFL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 20% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mikala Cann | C | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 25% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sarah Poustie | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 23% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Amaia Wain | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Britney Gutknecht | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Cleo Buttifant | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Dominique Carruthers | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Elle Bennetts | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jasmyn Smith | WL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Isabella Grant | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Kaylee Kimber | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Vaomua Laloifi | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |