AFLW · ROUND 1 · PEOPLE FIRST STADIUM
Gold Coast SUNS v Western Bulldogs
Sat 15 Aug 2026, 7:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
WB by 21
WB to win, 81% chance
GCS 19%81% WB
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WB by 26
HIT Actual margin 26 · 5.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anne Hatchard | RR | 3.5 | 2.1 to 5.0 | 0.0 to 7.1 | 58% | 39% | 24% | 14% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Charlie Rowbottom | R | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 46% | 24% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Niamh McLaughlin | HBFL | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 48% | 26% | 15% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Havana Harris | CHF | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 38% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Lily Mithen | WL | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 38% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Clara Fitzpatrick | FB | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 24% | 12% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Lucy Single | C | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 24% | 11% | 4% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Daisy D'Arcy | HBFR | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 16% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Mia Salisbury | INT | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Darcie Davies | INT | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 10% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Alannah Welsh | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Annabel Kievit | BPL | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Ava Usher | HFFR | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Bronte Parker | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Dekota Baron | FF | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Georja Davies | CHB | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Heidi Talbot | FPR | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Lily Quigley | HFFL | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Mikayla Nurse | WR | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Paige Price | RK | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sunny Lappin | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emma McDonald | FF | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 38% | 22% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Isabella Grant | HBFR | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 33% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Alice Edmonds | RK | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 24% | 12% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Britney Gutknecht | CHB | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Ellie Blackburn | R | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 25% | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Isabelle Pritchard | RR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 22% | 11% | 4% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jasmyn Smith | WL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 19% | 9% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Kaylee Kimber | FB | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 22% | 11% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Rylie Wilcox | WR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 22% | 9% | 3% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Sarah Hartwig | CHF | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 24% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Elle Bennetts | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 17% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jess Fitzgerald | HBFL | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 15% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Mikala Cann | C | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 17% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Vaomua Laloifi | BPL | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 17% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Heidi Woodley | HFFR | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Cleo Buttifant | INT | 1.1 | 0.3 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Dominique Carruthers | INT | 1.1 | 0.2 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Amaia Wain | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Deanna Berry | FPR | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Elaine Grigg | HFFL | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sarah Poustie | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |