AFLW · ROUND 1 · PEOPLE FIRST STADIUM
Gold Coast SUNS v Western Bulldogs
Sat 15 Aug 2026, 7:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
WB by 21
WB to win, 81% chance
GCS 19%81% WB
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WB by 26
HIT Actual margin 26 · 5.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Rowbottom | R | 6.2 | 4.3 to 8.1 | 2.0 to 10.4 | 91% | 84% | 71% | 56% | 46% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Lucy Single | C | 5.9 | 4.0 to 7.8 | 1.8 to 10.0 | 88% | 77% | 65% | 53% | 44% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Anne Hatchard | RR | 4.5 | 2.9 to 6.1 | 0.9 to 8.1 | 74% | 56% | 46% | 31% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Daisy D'Arcy | HBFR | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.1 | 0.9 to 8.0 | 74% | 56% | 43% | 31% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Darcie Davies | INT | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.5 to 7.2 | 67% | 49% | 37% | 24% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Lily Mithen | WL | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.5 to 7.1 | 64% | 49% | 32% | 24% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Annabel Kievit | BPL | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.3 to 6.5 | 56% | 40% | 24% | 12% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Havana Harris | CHF | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 49% | 32% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Clara Fitzpatrick | FB | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 40% | 24% | 12% | 7% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Ava Usher | HFFR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 38% | 24% | 11% | 7% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Lily Quigley | HFFL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 38% | 24% | 11% | 7% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Mikayla Nurse | WR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 38% | 23% | 11% | 7% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Heidi Talbot | FPR | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 31% | 15% | 7% | 5% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Niamh McLaughlin | HBFL | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 31% | 15% | 7% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Paige Price | RK | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 31% | 15% | 7% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Alannah Welsh | INT | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 38% | 20% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Bronte Parker | INT | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 38% | 20% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Dekota Baron | FF | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 32% | 15% | 7% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Georja Davies | CHB | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 32% | 15% | 7% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Sunny Lappin | INT | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 38% | 20% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Mia Salisbury | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 27% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikala Cann | C | 5.4 | 3.6 to 7.2 | 1.5 to 9.3 | 85% | 74% | 56% | 45% | 32% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Elaine Grigg | HFFL | 5.3 | 3.5 to 7.1 | 1.4 to 9.2 | 84% | 71% | 56% | 40% | 31% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Sarah Poustie | INT | 5.3 | 3.5 to 7.1 | 1.4 to 9.2 | 84% | 71% | 56% | 40% | 31% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Isabelle Pritchard | RR | 5.2 | 3.5 to 7.0 | 1.4 to 9.1 | 84% | 71% | 56% | 40% | 27% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jess Fitzgerald | HBFL | 5.1 | 3.3 to 6.8 | 1.3 to 8.9 | 84% | 71% | 53% | 38% | 27% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Dominique Carruthers | INT | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.3 | 1.0 to 8.3 | 75% | 61% | 49% | 32% | 23% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Ellie Blackburn | R | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.7 | 0.7 to 7.6 | 73% | 56% | 46% | 27% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jasmyn Smith | WL | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.4 to 6.8 | 64% | 49% | 31% | 15% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Alice Edmonds | RK | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.3 to 6.4 | 64% | 46% | 27% | 13% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Heidi Woodley | HFFR | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 48% | 31% | 15% | 8% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Rylie Wilcox | WR | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 56% | 32% | 23% | 11% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sarah Hartwig | CHF | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Britney Gutknecht | CHB | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 44% | 24% | 11% | 6% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Amaia Wain | INT | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 40% | 16% | 8% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Deanna Berry | FPR | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 36% | 15% | 7% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Isabella Grant | HBFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Kaylee Kimber | FB | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 40% | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Cleo Buttifant | INT | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 28% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Emma McDonald | FF | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Elle Bennetts | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 32% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Vaomua Laloifi | BPL | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 14% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |