HBin HUMAN BEHAVIOUR INSIGHTS
Australian FootballAFLW2026 Round 1HAW v MEL
AFLW · ROUND 1 · IKON PARK

Hawthorn v Melbourne

Thu 13 Aug 2026, 7:15pm AEST (venue time)

FINAL HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL

MEL by 22

MEL to win, 82% chance

HAW 18%82% MEL
BY HOW MUCH

No margin range published for this match.

RESULT

MEL by 19

HIT Actual margin 19 · 3.3 points off our margin

MATCH MODEL Tip and margin NEW MODEL 21 Sep 2026

Player predictions

Summary: our prediction for every market, one row per player. Where the match is played, the actual follows the slash. Choose a market for its ranges and chances.

Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range

Hawthorn

NO LINEUP
PLAYER POS DISPOSALSGOALSMARKSTACKLESFANTASY
Eliza West R 21.6 / inside our 90% range: 28.00.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.01.7 / inside our 50% range: 2.05.3 / inside our 50% range: 6.080 / inside our 90% range: 94
Emily Bates RR 20.5 / inside our 50% range: 21.00.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.01.9 / inside our 50% range: 3.05.5 / inside our 50% range: 5.078 / inside our 50% range: 76
Lucy Wales RK 17.3 / inside our 50% range: 18.00.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.02.1 / inside our 50% range: 3.04.9 / inside our 90% range: 8.095 / inside our 90% range: 119
Jasmine Fleming INT 13.9 / inside our 50% range: 14.00.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.01.4 / outside our 90% range: 4.03.6 / inside our 90% range: 1.058 / inside our 50% range: 49
Laura Stone C 13.6 / inside our 90% range: 7.00.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.01.1 / inside our 50% range: 1.05.1 / inside our 50% range: 4.062 / inside our 90% range: 37
Mikayla Williamson WR 13.2 / inside our 50% range: 12.00.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.01.4 / inside our 50% range: 1.03.1 / inside our 90% range: 6.052 / inside our 50% range: 59
Jenna Richardson CHB 12.4 / outside our 90% range: 20.00.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.03.3 / outside our 90% range: 11.02.2 / inside our 50% range: 2.054 / outside our 90% range: 94
Aine McDonagh CHF 12.1 / inside our 90% range: 16.01.3 / outside our 90% range: 3.02.1 / outside our 90% range: 6.02.2 / inside our 50% range: 2.058 / outside our 90% range: 91
Keely Coyne HFFR 10.5 / inside our 90% range: 6.00.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.01.9 / inside our 50% range: 2.02.7 / inside our 90% range: 0.046 / inside our 90% range: 20
Tamara Smith HBFL 10.5 / inside our 90% range: 14.00.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.02.0 / inside our 50% range: 3.04.2 / inside our 90% range: 7.050 / inside our 90% range: 77
Laura Elliott HBFR 9.7 / inside our 50% range: 9.00.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.02.0 / inside our 50% range: 1.01.8 / inside our 90% range: 0.041 / inside our 90% range: 26
Greta Bodey HFFL 9.5 / inside our 50% range: 10.00.9 / inside our 90% range: 0.02.0 / inside our 90% range: 4.03.1 / inside our 50% range: 3.049 / inside our 50% range: 55
Jacqueline Dupuy FPR 9.4 / outside our 90% range: 16.01.0 / inside our 50% range: 1.02.1 / outside our 90% range: 9.02.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.052 / inside our 90% range: 75
Casey Sherriff WL 9.0 / inside our 90% range: 14.00.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.01.0 / inside our 90% range: 3.02.4 / inside our 50% range: 2.037 / inside our 90% range: 53
Daisy Flockart INT 8.7 / inside our 50% range: 10.00.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.01.0 / inside our 90% range: 2.03.7 / inside our 50% range: 3.040 / inside our 50% range: 45
Bridie Hipwell BPL 8.4 / inside our 90% range: 5.00.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.01.0 / inside our 50% range: 1.03.5 / inside our 90% range: 2.038 / inside our 90% range: 24
Kaitlyn Ashmore INT 8.4 / inside our 90% range: 11.00.2 / outside our 90% range: 1.01.7 / inside our 90% range: 4.02.7 / inside our 50% range: 2.041 / inside our 90% range: 54
Hayley McLaughlin INT 8.3 / outside our 90% range: 18.00.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.01.8 / outside our 90% range: 5.02.9 / inside our 50% range: 3.042 / outside our 90% range: 75
Annabelle Embelton FB 7.2 / inside our 90% range: 3.00.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.01.0 / inside our 50% range: 1.02.1 / inside our 90% range: 0.029 / inside our 90% range: 10
Poppy Stockwell FF 7.1 / inside our 50% range: 5.00.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.01.1 / inside our 50% range: 1.02.0 / inside our 50% range: 2.032 / inside our 50% range: 32
Niamh Martin INT 7.0 / inside our 90% range: 4.00.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.01.0 / inside our 50% range: 1.02.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.034 / inside our 90% range: 12

Melbourne

NO LINEUP
PLAYER POS DISPOSALSGOALSMARKSTACKLESFANTASY
Kate Hore C 21.6 / inside our 50% range: 22.01.2 / inside our 50% range: 1.03.5 / inside our 90% range: 5.05.3 / inside our 90% range: 2.098 / inside our 50% range: 90
Olivia Purcell RR 21.2 / outside our 90% range: 32.00.3 / inside our 90% range: 0.01.9 / inside our 50% range: 1.04.9 / outside our 90% range: 9.084 / inside our 90% range: 114
Eliza McNamara WL 21.1 / inside our 90% range: 16.00.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.03.3 / inside our 50% range: 2.04.0 / inside our 90% range: 2.084 / inside our 90% range: 65
Tyla Hanks R 20.0 / inside our 50% range: 22.00.3 / inside our 90% range: 0.01.9 / inside our 50% range: 3.06.9 / inside our 50% range: 6.090 / inside our 50% range: 87
Megan Fitzsimon FPR 15.3 / inside our 50% range: 13.00.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.01.9 / inside our 50% range: 1.04.3 / inside our 50% range: 3.068 / inside our 90% range: 48
Tahlia Gillard FB 13.6 / inside our 50% range: 11.00.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.02.3 / inside our 90% range: 5.02.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.056 / inside our 50% range: 46
Shelley Heath-Barker INT 13.0 / inside our 90% range: 8.00.2 / outside our 90% range: 1.01.3 / inside our 50% range: 2.05.3 / inside our 90% range: 3.063 / inside our 90% range: 39
Sinead Goldrick INT 13.0 / inside our 90% range: 7.00.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.01.5 / inside our 50% range: 1.02.9 / inside our 50% range: 2.056 / outside our 90% range: 24
Paxy Paxman INT 12.9 / inside our 50% range: 12.00.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.02.2 / inside our 50% range: 1.01.7 / inside our 90% range: 3.051 / inside our 50% range: 43
Sarah Lampard BPL 10.9 / inside our 90% range: 14.00.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.01.9 / inside our 50% range: 3.01.8 / inside our 50% range: 1.041 / inside our 50% range: 51
Tayla Harris HFFR 10.8 / inside our 90% range: 17.01.0 / inside our 90% range: 0.02.6 / inside our 90% range: 5.02.2 / inside our 50% range: 2.055 / inside our 90% range: 74
Ryleigh Wotherspoon HFFL 10.5 / inside our 90% range: 4.00.8 / inside our 90% range: 0.02.0 / inside our 90% range: 0.03.6 / inside our 90% range: 6.054 / inside our 90% range: 32
Alyssa Bannan WR 10.1 / inside our 90% range: 13.00.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.01.9 / inside our 50% range: 2.02.9 / inside our 50% range: 2.050 / inside our 50% range: 47
Maggie Mahony CHF 9.5 / inside our 50% range: 12.00.4 / outside our 90% range: 2.01.0 / outside our 90% range: 4.03.8 / inside our 90% range: 7.047 / outside our 90% range: 80
Molly O'Hehir HBFL 9.3 / inside our 90% range: 15.00.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.01.9 / outside our 90% range: 6.02.2 / inside our 50% range: 1.040 / inside our 90% range: 61
Jordyn Allen CHB 7.2 / outside our 90% range: 19.00.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.01.0 / inside our 90% range: 3.02.2 / inside our 50% range: 3.034 / outside our 90% range: 69
Lauren Clifton HBFR 7.2 / inside our 50% range: 6.00.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.01.0 / inside our 90% range: 2.02.2 / inside our 50% range: 2.034 / inside our 50% range: 31
Jacinta Hose RK 7.1 / outside our 90% range: 0.00.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.01.0 / inside our 90% range: 0.02.3 / inside our 50% range: 2.040 / outside our 90% range: 8
Georgia Gall INT 7.0 / inside our 90% range: 10.00.3 / inside our 90% range: 0.01.9 / inside our 90% range: 3.01.8 / inside our 90% range: 0.034 / inside our 50% range: 36
Mia Austin FF 6.9 / inside our 50% range: 7.00.7 / outside our 90% range: 4.01.9 / inside our 50% range: 2.02.5 / inside our 90% range: 1.036 / inside our 90% range: 54
Georgia Campbell INT 6.3 / inside our 90% range: 11.00.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.01.2 / inside our 50% range: 1.01.8 / inside our 90% range: 4.031 / inside our 50% range: 40