AFLW · ROUND 1 · IKON PARK
Hawthorn v Melbourne
Thu 13 Aug 2026, 7:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
MEL by 22
MEL to win, 82% chance
HAW 18%82% MEL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
MEL by 19
HIT Actual margin 19 · 3.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eliza West | R | 21.6 | 18.1 to 25.1 | 12.9 to 30.2 | 91% | 65% | 28% | 7% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 28.0 |
| Emily Bates | RR | 20.5 | 17.1 to 24.0 | 12.0 to 29.0 | 88% | 57% | 22% | 5% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Lucy Wales | RK | 17.3 | 14.1 to 20.5 | 9.4 to 25.2 | 69% | 30% | 8% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Jasmine Fleming | INT | 13.9 | 11.0 to 16.8 | 6.7 to 21.1 | 38% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Laura Stone | C | 13.6 | 10.7 to 16.5 | 6.4 to 20.7 | 37% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Mikayla Williamson | WR | 13.2 | 10.3 to 16.0 | 6.1 to 20.2 | 34% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Jenna Richardson | CHB | 12.4 | 9.6 to 15.2 | 5.5 to 19.3 | 29% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Aine McDonagh | CHF | 12.1 | 9.3 to 14.9 | 5.3 to 18.9 | 26% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Keely Coyne | HFFR | 10.5 | 7.8 to 13.1 | 4.0 to 16.9 | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Tamara Smith | HBFL | 10.5 | 7.9 to 13.2 | 4.1 to 17.0 | 14% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Laura Elliott | HBFR | 9.7 | 7.1 to 12.2 | 3.4 to 15.9 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Greta Bodey | HFFL | 9.5 | 7.0 to 12.0 | 3.3 to 15.7 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Jacqueline Dupuy | FPR | 9.4 | 6.9 to 12.0 | 3.3 to 15.6 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Casey Sherriff | WL | 9.0 | 6.6 to 11.5 | 3.0 to 15.1 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Daisy Flockart | INT | 8.7 | 6.3 to 11.2 | 2.7 to 14.7 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Bridie Hipwell | BPL | 8.4 | 6.0 to 10.8 | 2.5 to 14.3 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Kaitlyn Ashmore | INT | 8.4 | 6.0 to 10.7 | 2.4 to 14.3 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Hayley McLaughlin | INT | 8.3 | 5.9 to 10.6 | 2.4 to 14.1 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Annabelle Embelton | FB | 7.2 | 4.9 to 9.4 | 1.6 to 12.7 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Poppy Stockwell | FF | 7.1 | 4.9 to 9.4 | 1.6 to 12.7 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Niamh Martin | INT | 7.0 | 4.8 to 9.2 | 1.5 to 12.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kate Hore | C | 21.6 | 18.1 to 25.1 | 12.9 to 30.2 | 91% | 65% | 28% | 7% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Olivia Purcell | RR | 21.2 | 17.7 to 24.7 | 12.6 to 29.8 | 90% | 63% | 25% | 6% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 32.0 |
| Eliza McNamara | WL | 21.1 | 17.6 to 24.6 | 12.5 to 29.7 | 90% | 62% | 25% | 6% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Tyla Hanks | R | 20.0 | 16.6 to 23.4 | 11.6 to 28.4 | 85% | 53% | 19% | 4% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Megan Fitzsimon | FPR | 15.3 | 12.2 to 18.3 | 7.8 to 22.8 | 54% | 18% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Tahlia Gillard | FB | 13.6 | 10.7 to 16.5 | 6.5 to 20.8 | 37% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Shelley Heath-Barker | INT | 13.0 | 10.2 to 15.9 | 6.0 to 20.1 | 32% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Sinead Goldrick | INT | 13.0 | 10.1 to 15.8 | 6.0 to 20.0 | 32% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Paxy Paxman | INT | 12.9 | 10.0 to 15.7 | 5.9 to 19.9 | 31% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Sarah Lampard | BPL | 10.9 | 8.2 to 13.6 | 4.3 to 17.5 | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Tayla Harris | HFFR | 10.8 | 8.1 to 13.4 | 4.3 to 17.3 | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Ryleigh Wotherspoon | HFFL | 10.5 | 7.9 to 13.1 | 4.0 to 16.9 | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Alyssa Bannan | WR | 10.1 | 7.5 to 12.6 | 3.7 to 16.4 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Maggie Mahony | CHF | 9.5 | 7.0 to 12.1 | 3.3 to 15.8 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Molly O'Hehir | HBFL | 9.3 | 6.8 to 11.8 | 3.1 to 15.4 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Jordyn Allen | CHB | 7.2 | 5.0 to 9.5 | 1.6 to 12.8 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Lauren Clifton | HBFR | 7.2 | 5.0 to 9.5 | 1.6 to 12.8 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Jacinta Hose | RK | 7.1 | 4.8 to 9.3 | 1.5 to 12.6 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Georgia Gall | INT | 7.0 | 4.8 to 9.2 | 1.5 to 12.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Mia Austin | FF | 6.9 | 4.7 to 9.2 | 1.4 to 12.4 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Georgia Campbell | INT | 6.3 | 4.2 to 8.5 | 1.0 to 11.6 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |