AFLW · ROUND 1 · IKON PARK
Hawthorn v Melbourne
Thu 13 Aug 2026, 7:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
MEL by 22
MEL to win, 82% chance
HAW 18%82% MEL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
MEL by 19
HIT Actual margin 19 · 3.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucy Wales | RK | 95 | 79 to 110 | 58 to 131 | 86% | 75% | 57% | 38% | 24% | inside our 90% range: 119 |
| Eliza West | R | 80 | 65 to 94 | 45 to 114 | 67% | 49% | 33% | 16% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 94 |
| Emily Bates | RR | 78 | 64 to 92 | 44 to 112 | 63% | 45% | 30% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 76 |
| Laura Stone | C | 62 | 49 to 75 | 30 to 93 | 30% | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 37 |
| Aine McDonagh | CHF | 58 | 45 to 71 | 28 to 88 | 23% | 11% | 5% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 91 |
| Jasmine Fleming | INT | 58 | 45 to 70 | 27 to 88 | 23% | 11% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 49 |
| Jenna Richardson | CHB | 54 | 42 to 67 | 24 to 84 | 20% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 94 |
| Mikayla Williamson | WR | 52 | 40 to 65 | 23 to 82 | 15% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Jacqueline Dupuy | FPR | 52 | 39 to 64 | 22 to 81 | 14% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 75 |
| Tamara Smith | HBFL | 50 | 38 to 63 | 21 to 80 | 16% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 77 |
| Greta Bodey | HFFL | 49 | 37 to 61 | 20 to 78 | 14% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Keely Coyne | HFFR | 46 | 34 to 58 | 18 to 74 | 10% | 4% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20 |
| Hayley McLaughlin | INT | 42 | 30 to 53 | 14 to 69 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 75 |
| Kaitlyn Ashmore | INT | 41 | 30 to 53 | 14 to 69 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 54 |
| Laura Elliott | HBFR | 41 | 29 to 52 | 14 to 68 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 26 |
| Daisy Flockart | INT | 40 | 29 to 52 | 14 to 68 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 45 |
| Bridie Hipwell | BPL | 38 | 27 to 49 | 12 to 65 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24 |
| Casey Sherriff | WL | 37 | 26 to 48 | 11 to 63 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 53 |
| Niamh Martin | INT | 34 | 24 to 45 | 9 to 60 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12 |
| Poppy Stockwell | FF | 32 | 21 to 42 | 7 to 57 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 32 |
| Annabelle Embelton | FB | 29 | 19 to 39 | 4 to 53 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10 |
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kate Hore | C | 98 | 82 to 113 | 61 to 135 | 89% | 79% | 63% | 45% | 29% | inside our 50% range: 90 |
| Tyla Hanks | R | 90 | 75 to 105 | 54 to 126 | 82% | 68% | 49% | 31% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 87 |
| Eliza McNamara | WL | 84 | 70 to 99 | 50 to 119 | 76% | 57% | 38% | 22% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 65 |
| Olivia Purcell | RR | 84 | 70 to 99 | 49 to 119 | 75% | 57% | 37% | 22% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 114 |
| Megan Fitzsimon | FPR | 68 | 54 to 81 | 36 to 100 | 43% | 28% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 48 |
| Shelley Heath-Barker | INT | 63 | 50 to 76 | 31 to 94 | 36% | 21% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 39 |
| Tahlia Gillard | FB | 56 | 44 to 69 | 26 to 86 | 24% | 13% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Sinead Goldrick | INT | 56 | 44 to 68 | 26 to 86 | 24% | 13% | 5% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 24 |
| Tayla Harris | HFFR | 55 | 43 to 68 | 25 to 85 | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 74 |
| Ryleigh Wotherspoon | HFFL | 54 | 41 to 66 | 24 to 83 | 19% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 32 |
| Paxy Paxman | INT | 51 | 39 to 63 | 22 to 80 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 43 |
| Alyssa Bannan | WR | 50 | 38 to 62 | 21 to 79 | 16% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 47 |
| Maggie Mahony | CHF | 47 | 36 to 59 | 19 to 76 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 80 |
| Sarah Lampard | BPL | 41 | 30 to 53 | 14 to 68 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 51 |
| Jacinta Hose | RK | 40 | 29 to 51 | 13 to 67 | 4% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 8 |
| Molly O'Hehir | HBFL | 40 | 29 to 51 | 13 to 66 | 4% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 61 |
| Mia Austin | FF | 36 | 25 to 46 | 10 to 62 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 54 |
| Georgia Gall | INT | 34 | 23 to 44 | 8 to 60 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 36 |
| Jordyn Allen | CHB | 34 | 23 to 44 | 8 to 59 | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 69 |
| Lauren Clifton | HBFR | 34 | 23 to 44 | 8 to 59 | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 31 |
| Georgia Campbell | INT | 31 | 21 to 42 | 7 to 56 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 40 |