AFLW · ROUND 1 · IKON PARK
Hawthorn v Melbourne
Thu 13 Aug 2026, 7:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
MEL by 22
MEL to win, 82% chance
HAW 18%82% MEL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
MEL by 19
HIT Actual margin 19 · 3.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aine McDonagh | CHF | 1.3 | 0.8 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 84% | 30% | 15% | 6% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jacqueline Dupuy | FPR | 1.0 | 0.6 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 64% | 24% | 11% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Greta Bodey | HFFL | 0.9 | 0.5 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 51% | 20% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Niamh Martin | INT | 0.4 | 0.2 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 30% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Poppy Stockwell | FF | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 25% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Bridie Hipwell | BPL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 15% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jasmine Fleming | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 11% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Kaitlyn Ashmore | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 25% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Keely Coyne | HFFR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 20% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Laura Stone | C | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mikayla Williamson | WR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Annabelle Embelton | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Casey Sherriff | WL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Daisy Flockart | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Eliza West | R | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Emily Bates | RR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 11% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Hayley McLaughlin | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 11% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lucy Wales | RK | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jenna Richardson | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Laura Elliott | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tamara Smith | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kate Hore | C | 1.2 | 0.8 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 84% | 30% | 15% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Tayla Harris | HFFR | 1.0 | 0.6 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 64% | 25% | 12% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ryleigh Wotherspoon | HFFL | 0.8 | 0.5 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 43% | 20% | 7% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mia Austin | FF | 0.7 | 0.4 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 64% | 20% | 10% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Alyssa Bannan | WR | 0.6 | 0.3 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 39% | 15% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Megan Fitzsimon | FPR | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 47% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Maggie Mahony | CHF | 0.4 | 0.2 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 30% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Eliza McNamara | WL | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Georgia Gall | INT | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 20% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Olivia Purcell | RR | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 20% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tyla Hanks | R | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Georgia Campbell | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Paxy Paxman | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 9% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Shelley Heath-Barker | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jacinta Hose | RK | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jordyn Allen | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lauren Clifton | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sarah Lampard | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sinead Goldrick | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 13% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Molly O'Hehir | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tahlia Gillard | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |