AFLW · ROUND 1 · IKON PARK
Hawthorn v Melbourne
Thu 13 Aug 2026, 7:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
MEL by 22
MEL to win, 82% chance
HAW 18%82% MEL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
MEL by 19
HIT Actual margin 19 · 3.3 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emily Bates | RR | 5.5 | 3.7 to 7.3 | 1.6 to 9.5 | 85% | 73% | 61% | 49% | 38% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Eliza West | R | 5.3 | 3.6 to 7.1 | 1.4 to 9.2 | 84% | 72% | 56% | 40% | 31% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Laura Stone | C | 5.1 | 3.3 to 6.8 | 1.3 to 8.9 | 84% | 71% | 53% | 38% | 27% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Lucy Wales | RK | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.6 | 1.1 to 8.6 | 78% | 65% | 49% | 32% | 24% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Tamara Smith | HBFL | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.8 to 7.7 | 74% | 56% | 46% | 31% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Daisy Flockart | INT | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.1 | 0.4 to 6.9 | 65% | 49% | 32% | 15% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jasmine Fleming | INT | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.0 | 0.4 to 6.8 | 64% | 49% | 31% | 15% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Bridie Hipwell | BPL | 3.5 | 2.1 to 4.9 | 0.4 to 6.7 | 56% | 45% | 27% | 15% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Greta Bodey | HFFL | 3.1 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.1 to 6.1 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 10% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Mikayla Williamson | WR | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.0 | 56% | 37% | 24% | 11% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Hayley McLaughlin | INT | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 40% | 24% | 13% | 7% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Kaitlyn Ashmore | INT | 2.7 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 56% | 32% | 19% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Keely Coyne | HFFR | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 49% | 27% | 15% | 8% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Niamh Martin | INT | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 53% | 32% | 15% | 9% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Casey Sherriff | WL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 46% | 24% | 11% | 6% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jacqueline Dupuy | FPR | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 38% | 23% | 8% | 5% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Aine McDonagh | CHF | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 40% | 24% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jenna Richardson | CHB | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 31% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Annabelle Embelton | FB | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 31% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Poppy Stockwell | FF | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 32% | 16% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Laura Elliott | HBFR | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 31% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyla Hanks | R | 6.9 | 4.9 to 8.9 | 2.5 to 11.3 | 94% | 85% | 74% | 65% | 53% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Kate Hore | C | 5.3 | 3.6 to 7.1 | 1.4 to 9.2 | 84% | 72% | 56% | 40% | 31% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Shelley Heath-Barker | INT | 5.3 | 3.5 to 7.0 | 1.4 to 9.1 | 84% | 71% | 56% | 40% | 31% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Olivia Purcell | RR | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.6 | 1.2 to 8.6 | 79% | 65% | 49% | 32% | 24% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Megan Fitzsimon | FPR | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.9 | 0.8 to 7.8 | 76% | 59% | 47% | 32% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Eliza McNamara | WL | 4.0 | 2.5 to 5.6 | 0.7 to 7.4 | 71% | 56% | 42% | 27% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Maggie Mahony | CHF | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.5 to 7.1 | 64% | 49% | 32% | 24% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Ryleigh Wotherspoon | HFFL | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.0 | 0.4 to 6.7 | 61% | 46% | 31% | 15% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Alyssa Bannan | WR | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 40% | 24% | 13% | 7% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Sinead Goldrick | INT | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 57% | 40% | 24% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Mia Austin | FF | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 49% | 28% | 14% | 8% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jacinta Hose | RK | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 31% | 15% | 7% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Tahlia Gillard | FB | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 33% | 21% | 8% | 5% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jordyn Allen | CHB | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 36% | 15% | 7% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Lauren Clifton | HBFR | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 33% | 15% | 7% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Molly O'Hehir | HBFL | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 38% | 19% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Tayla Harris | HFFR | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 37% | 19% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Georgia Campbell | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Georgia Gall | INT | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sarah Lampard | BPL | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 31% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Paxy Paxman | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |