AFLW · ROUND 1 · MARVEL STADIUM
North Melbourne v Geelong Cats
Sat 15 Aug 2026, 1:00pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
NM by 29
NM to win, 88% chance
NM 88%12% GEE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
NM by 73
HIT Actual margin 73 · 43.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ash Riddell | RR | 25.9 | 22.1 to 29.7 | 16.6 to 35.3 | 97% | 87% | 61% | 26% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 35.0 |
| Jasmine Garner | R | 25.4 | 21.7 to 29.2 | 16.1 to 34.7 | 96% | 85% | 56% | 23% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 35.0 |
| Mia King | C | 19.8 | 16.4 to 23.2 | 11.4 to 28.1 | 84% | 52% | 18% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Eilish Sheerin | INT | 16.9 | 13.7 to 20.0 | 9.1 to 24.7 | 64% | 26% | 7% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Erika O'Shea | HBFR | 15.6 | 12.5 to 18.6 | 8.0 to 23.1 | 58% | 20% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Tess Craven | WR | 15.1 | 12.0 to 18.1 | 7.6 to 22.5 | 53% | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Jenna Bruton | WL | 14.6 | 11.6 to 17.5 | 7.2 to 21.9 | 50% | 15% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Libby Birch | BPL | 14.2 | 11.3 to 17.2 | 6.9 to 21.5 | 41% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Ruby Tripodi | INT | 12.9 | 10.1 to 15.7 | 5.9 to 19.9 | 31% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Eliza Shannon | HBFL | 12.6 | 9.7 to 15.4 | 5.6 to 19.5 | 29% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Bella Eddey | HFFR | 12.1 | 9.4 to 14.9 | 5.3 to 19.0 | 26% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Kim Rennie | RK | 11.6 | 8.9 to 14.3 | 4.9 to 18.3 | 21% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Alice O'Loughlin | HFFL | 10.9 | 8.3 to 13.6 | 4.4 to 17.5 | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Vikki Wall | CHF | 10.6 | 8.0 to 13.2 | 4.1 to 17.1 | 15% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Blaithin Bogue | FPR | 9.5 | 7.0 to 12.1 | 3.3 to 15.8 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Jasmine Ferguson | FB | 8.9 | 6.4 to 11.4 | 2.8 to 15.0 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Tahlia Randall | FF | 8.9 | 6.4 to 11.3 | 2.8 to 14.9 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Kate Shierlaw | INT | 8.5 | 6.1 to 10.9 | 2.5 to 14.4 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Amy Gavin Mangan | INT | 8.4 | 6.0 to 10.8 | 2.5 to 14.3 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Emma King | INT | 7.4 | 5.1 to 9.7 | 1.8 to 13.1 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Claire Mahony | CHB | 7.3 | 5.0 to 9.6 | 1.7 to 12.9 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 15.0 |
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgie Prespakis | R | 22.9 | 19.3 to 26.5 | 14.0 to 31.8 | 94% | 73% | 38% | 12% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Nina Morrison | RR | 19.3 | 15.9 to 22.6 | 11.0 to 27.5 | 81% | 43% | 14% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Amy McDonald | C | 18.9 | 15.6 to 22.2 | 10.7 to 27.1 | 78% | 40% | 13% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 26.0 |
| Mikayla Bowen | INT | 15.9 | 12.8 to 18.9 | 8.2 to 23.5 | 60% | 21% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Rebecca Webster | CHB | 14.9 | 11.9 to 17.9 | 7.5 to 22.3 | 51% | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 27.0 |
| Chantel Emonson | FB | 12.5 | 9.7 to 15.4 | 5.6 to 19.5 | 29% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Aishling Moloney | FF | 12.1 | 9.3 to 14.8 | 5.2 to 18.9 | 25% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Zali Friswell | WL | 11.8 | 9.1 to 14.5 | 5.0 to 18.6 | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Julia Crockett-Grills | CHF | 11.4 | 8.7 to 14.1 | 4.7 to 18.0 | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Claudia Gunjaca | BPL | 11.1 | 8.5 to 13.8 | 4.5 to 17.8 | 20% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Emma Kilpatrick | HBFR | 10.8 | 8.1 to 13.4 | 4.2 to 17.3 | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Jacqueline Parry | HFFR | 10.8 | 8.1 to 13.4 | 4.3 to 17.3 | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Rachel Kearns | HFFL | 9.2 | 6.7 to 11.7 | 3.1 to 15.4 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Emma Murray | WR | 7.4 | 5.1 to 9.7 | 1.8 to 13.1 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Evie Cowcher | HBFL | 6.9 | 4.7 to 9.2 | 1.4 to 12.4 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Piper Dunlop | RK | 6.9 | 4.6 to 9.1 | 1.4 to 12.3 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Alexis Gregor | INT | 6.3 | 4.1 to 8.4 | 1.0 to 11.6 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Chloe Scheer | INT | 6.2 | 4.1 to 8.3 | 0.9 to 11.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Priya Bowering | FPR | 6.0 | 3.9 to 8.1 | 0.8 to 11.2 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Chantal Mason | INT | 5.9 | 3.8 to 8.0 | 0.7 to 11.0 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Bryde O'Rourke | INT | 5.7 | 3.6 to 7.7 | 0.6 to 10.8 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 11.0 |