AFLW · ROUND 1 · MARVEL STADIUM
North Melbourne v Geelong Cats
Sat 15 Aug 2026, 1:00pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
NM by 29
NM to win, 88% chance
NM 88%12% GEE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
NM by 73
HIT Actual margin 73 · 43.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ash Riddell | RR | 118 | 102 to 135 | 79 to 158 | 98% | 95% | 88% | 78% | 63% | inside our 50% range: 119 |
| Jasmine Garner | R | 115 | 98 to 131 | 76 to 154 | 98% | 94% | 84% | 73% | 57% | inside our 50% range: 130 |
| Mia King | C | 80 | 66 to 94 | 46 to 114 | 69% | 49% | 30% | 16% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 55 |
| Eilish Sheerin | INT | 78 | 64 to 92 | 44 to 112 | 63% | 45% | 30% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 84 |
| Erika O'Shea | HBFR | 67 | 53 to 80 | 35 to 99 | 41% | 26% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 86 |
| Tess Craven | WR | 66 | 52 to 79 | 34 to 98 | 40% | 24% | 12% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 95 |
| Kim Rennie | RK | 64 | 50 to 77 | 32 to 95 | 37% | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 38 |
| Jenna Bruton | WL | 62 | 49 to 74 | 30 to 93 | 30% | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 21 |
| Ruby Tripodi | INT | 60 | 47 to 73 | 29 to 91 | 27% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 30 |
| Libby Birch | BPL | 60 | 47 to 73 | 29 to 91 | 27% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Alice O'Loughlin | HFFL | 55 | 43 to 68 | 25 to 85 | 22% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 72 |
| Eliza Shannon | HBFL | 51 | 39 to 64 | 22 to 81 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 49 |
| Vikki Wall | CHF | 51 | 39 to 64 | 22 to 81 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 72 |
| Bella Eddey | HFFR | 51 | 39 to 63 | 22 to 80 | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Tahlia Randall | FF | 49 | 37 to 61 | 20 to 78 | 15% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 69 |
| Blaithin Bogue | FPR | 45 | 33 to 57 | 17 to 73 | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 71 |
| Kate Shierlaw | INT | 43 | 32 to 54 | 15 to 70 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 49 |
| Emma King | INT | 42 | 31 to 54 | 15 to 70 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 36 |
| Jasmine Ferguson | FB | 38 | 27 to 49 | 12 to 65 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 63 |
| Amy Gavin Mangan | INT | 38 | 27 to 48 | 11 to 64 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 49 |
| Claire Mahony | CHB | 35 | 24 to 45 | 9 to 60 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 66 |
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgie Prespakis | R | 88 | 73 to 103 | 53 to 124 | 80% | 64% | 45% | 29% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 73 |
| Nina Morrison | RR | 84 | 70 to 98 | 49 to 119 | 75% | 56% | 37% | 21% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Amy McDonald | C | 76 | 62 to 90 | 42 to 109 | 59% | 41% | 26% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 78 |
| Mikayla Bowen | INT | 73 | 59 to 87 | 40 to 106 | 56% | 38% | 21% | 10% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Jacqueline Parry | HFFR | 60 | 47 to 73 | 29 to 91 | 27% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 28 |
| Rebecca Webster | CHB | 59 | 46 to 72 | 28 to 90 | 25% | 12% | 6% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 93 |
| Aishling Moloney | FF | 58 | 46 to 71 | 28 to 89 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 34 |
| Chantel Emonson | FB | 56 | 43 to 68 | 26 to 86 | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Julia Crockett-Grills | CHF | 56 | 43 to 68 | 26 to 86 | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 38 |
| Claudia Gunjaca | BPL | 49 | 37 to 61 | 20 to 78 | 14% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 37 |
| Rachel Kearns | HFFL | 47 | 35 to 59 | 19 to 75 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Zali Friswell | WL | 47 | 35 to 58 | 18 to 75 | 10% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Emma Kilpatrick | HBFR | 43 | 32 to 55 | 16 to 71 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 47 |
| Piper Dunlop | RK | 36 | 25 to 46 | 10 to 61 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 32 |
| Emma Murray | WR | 34 | 23 to 44 | 8 to 59 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 34 |
| Chloe Scheer | INT | 30 | 20 to 40 | 6 to 55 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21 |
| Evie Cowcher | HBFL | 30 | 20 to 40 | 5 to 54 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 53 |
| Priya Bowering | FPR | 29 | 19 to 39 | 5 to 53 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17 |
| Chantal Mason | INT | 29 | 18 to 39 | 4 to 53 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 28 |
| Alexis Gregor | INT | 25 | 16 to 35 | 2 to 49 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 34 |
| Bryde O'Rourke | INT | 24 | 14 to 33 | 1 to 47 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 43 |