AFLW · ROUND 1 · MARVEL STADIUM
North Melbourne v Geelong Cats
Sat 15 Aug 2026, 1:00pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
NM by 29
NM to win, 88% chance
NM 88%12% GEE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
NM by 73
HIT Actual margin 73 · 43.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tahlia Randall | FF | 1.3 | 0.8 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 84% | 30% | 15% | 6% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jasmine Garner | R | 1.2 | 0.7 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 70% | 30% | 15% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Blaithin Bogue | FPR | 1.1 | 0.7 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 69% | 25% | 13% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Alice O'Loughlin | HFFL | 0.8 | 0.4 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 39% | 15% | 4% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Kate Shierlaw | INT | 0.7 | 0.4 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 56% | 20% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Emma King | INT | 0.6 | 0.3 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 43% | 19% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jenna Bruton | WL | 0.6 | 0.3 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 39% | 15% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Vikki Wall | CHF | 0.6 | 0.3 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 43% | 15% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Ash Riddell | RR | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 30% | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Bella Eddey | HFFR | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 29% | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Eilish Sheerin | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 20% | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tess Craven | WR | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 39% | 11% | 3% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Amy Gavin Mangan | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mia King | C | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ruby Tripodi | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 15% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Claire Mahony | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 12% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Erika O'Shea | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Kim Rennie | RK | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Eliza Shannon | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jasmine Ferguson | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Libby Birch | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aishling Moloney | FF | 0.9 | 0.5 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 47% | 20% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jacqueline Parry | HFFR | 0.9 | 0.5 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 46% | 20% | 8% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Chloe Scheer | INT | 0.8 | 0.4 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 43% | 20% | 6% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Julia Crockett-Grills | CHF | 0.7 | 0.4 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 64% | 21% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Chantal Mason | INT | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 24% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mikayla Bowen | INT | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 25% | 8% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Nina Morrison | RR | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 39% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Amy McDonald | C | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Georgie Prespakis | R | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 25% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Priya Bowering | FPR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Rachel Kearns | HFFL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Alexis Gregor | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Bryde O'Rourke | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Emma Kilpatrick | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Emma Murray | WR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Evie Cowcher | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Rebecca Webster | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Zali Friswell | WL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Chantel Emonson | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Claudia Gunjaca | BPL | -0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Piper Dunlop | RK | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |