AFLW · ROUND 1 · MARVEL STADIUM
North Melbourne v Geelong Cats
Sat 15 Aug 2026, 1:00pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
NM by 29
NM to win, 88% chance
NM 88%12% GEE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
NM by 73
HIT Actual margin 73 · 43.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Libby Birch | BPL | 3.6 | 2.2 to 5.0 | 0.0 to 7.1 | 58% | 39% | 24% | 14% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Eliza Shannon | HBFL | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 42% | 24% | 15% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Erika O'Shea | HBFR | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 40% | 24% | 14% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Ash Riddell | RR | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 40% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Jasmine Ferguson | FB | 2.7 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 39% | 24% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Kate Shierlaw | INT | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 38% | 24% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Tahlia Randall | FF | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 34% | 19% | 9% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Tess Craven | WR | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 33% | 17% | 9% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Jasmine Garner | R | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 37% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Kim Rennie | RK | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 30% | 19% | 10% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Emma King | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 24% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Alice O'Loughlin | HFFL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 24% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jenna Bruton | WL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 15% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Vikki Wall | CHF | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 22% | 11% | 4% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Blaithin Bogue | FPR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 20% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Mia King | C | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 17% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Bella Eddey | HFFR | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Eilish Sheerin | INT | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ruby Tripodi | INT | 1.2 | 0.3 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 9% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Amy Gavin Mangan | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Claire Mahony | CHB | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacqueline Parry | HFFR | 3.5 | 2.1 to 4.9 | 0.0 to 7.0 | 58% | 39% | 24% | 14% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Claudia Gunjaca | BPL | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 46% | 24% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Aishling Moloney | FF | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 39% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Julia Crockett-Grills | CHF | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 38% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mikayla Bowen | INT | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 34% | 20% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Rebecca Webster | CHB | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 28% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Amy McDonald | C | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 22% | 11% | 4% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Chantel Emonson | FB | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Georgie Prespakis | R | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 19% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Nina Morrison | RR | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 12% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Rachel Kearns | HFFL | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 13% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Zali Friswell | WL | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Chloe Scheer | INT | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 14% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Emma Kilpatrick | HBFR | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 18% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Chantal Mason | INT | 1.1 | 0.2 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Alexis Gregor | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Bryde O'Rourke | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 9% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Emma Murray | WR | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Evie Cowcher | HBFL | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Piper Dunlop | RK | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Priya Bowering | FPR | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |