AFLW · ROUND 1 · MARVEL STADIUM
North Melbourne v Geelong Cats
Sat 15 Aug 2026, 1:00pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
NM by 29
NM to win, 88% chance
NM 88%12% GEE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
NM by 73
HIT Actual margin 73 · 43.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mia King | C | 5.8 | 4.0 to 7.6 | 1.7 to 9.9 | 88% | 77% | 64% | 53% | 40% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Eilish Sheerin | INT | 5.6 | 3.8 to 7.4 | 1.6 to 9.6 | 85% | 74% | 62% | 49% | 38% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Jasmine Garner | R | 5.2 | 3.4 to 6.9 | 1.4 to 9.0 | 84% | 71% | 53% | 40% | 27% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Ruby Tripodi | INT | 4.1 | 2.6 to 5.7 | 0.7 to 7.6 | 72% | 56% | 46% | 27% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Ash Riddell | RR | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.0 | 0.4 to 6.8 | 61% | 49% | 31% | 15% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Alice O'Loughlin | HFFL | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.3 to 6.5 | 53% | 38% | 24% | 11% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Erika O'Shea | HBFR | 3.1 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.1 to 6.1 | 49% | 32% | 15% | 10% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Vikki Wall | CHF | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 49% | 32% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jenna Bruton | WL | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 61% | 46% | 24% | 13% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Tess Craven | WR | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 56% | 37% | 23% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Bella Eddey | HFFR | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Amy Gavin Mangan | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 44% | 24% | 11% | 6% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Kim Rennie | RK | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 32% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Claire Mahony | CHB | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 32% | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Blaithin Bogue | FPR | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 32% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jasmine Ferguson | FB | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 27% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Libby Birch | BPL | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 29% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Emma King | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tahlia Randall | FF | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 15% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Eliza Shannon | HBFL | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 14% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Kate Shierlaw | INT | 1.2 | 0.3 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 11% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nina Morrison | RR | 6.6 | 4.6 to 8.5 | 2.3 to 10.9 | 91% | 84% | 71% | 61% | 49% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Georgie Prespakis | R | 5.9 | 4.0 to 7.8 | 1.8 to 10.0 | 88% | 77% | 65% | 53% | 43% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Mikayla Bowen | INT | 5.0 | 3.3 to 6.7 | 1.2 to 8.8 | 84% | 71% | 53% | 37% | 27% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Amy McDonald | C | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.6 | 1.2 to 8.7 | 79% | 68% | 49% | 32% | 24% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Rachel Kearns | HFFL | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.2 to 6.4 | 61% | 45% | 27% | 13% | 8% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Chantel Emonson | FB | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 53% | 32% | 23% | 10% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Zali Friswell | WL | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 53% | 32% | 23% | 11% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Julia Crockett-Grills | CHF | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 43% | 24% | 11% | 7% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Rebecca Webster | CHB | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jacqueline Parry | HFFR | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 46% | 28% | 13% | 8% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Claudia Gunjaca | BPL | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 32% | 15% | 7% | 5% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Emma Kilpatrick | HBFR | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 31% | 15% | 7% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Emma Murray | WR | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 24% | 11% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Aishling Moloney | FF | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 37% | 18% | 9% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Piper Dunlop | RK | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 32% | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Priya Bowering | FPR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Evie Cowcher | HBFL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 32% | 15% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Chantal Mason | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Bryde O'Rourke | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Alexis Gregor | INT | 1.5 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 14% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Chloe Scheer | INT | 1.5 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 14% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |