AFLW · ROUND 1 · IKON PARK
Richmond v Collingwood
Sat 15 Aug 2026, 5:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
RIC by 0
RIC to win, 50% chance
RIC 50%50% COL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
RIC by 18
HIT Actual margin 18 · 17.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monique Conti | C | 23.4 | 19.8 to 27.1 | 14.5 to 32.4 | 95% | 77% | 42% | 14% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| Dana East | INT | 12.4 | 9.6 to 15.2 | 5.5 to 19.3 | 29% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Ally Dallaway | INT | 11.7 | 9.0 to 14.4 | 5.0 to 18.5 | 21% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Rebecca Miller | BPL | 11.6 | 8.8 to 14.3 | 4.9 to 18.3 | 21% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Sierra Grieves | R | 11.0 | 8.3 to 13.6 | 4.4 to 17.6 | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Katie Brennan | HFFL | 10.6 | 7.9 to 13.2 | 4.1 to 17.0 | 15% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Caitlin Greiser | HFFR | 10.3 | 7.7 to 12.9 | 3.9 to 16.7 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Emelia Yassir | RR | 9.5 | 7.0 to 12.0 | 3.3 to 15.7 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Libby Graham | WR | 9.4 | 6.9 to 11.9 | 3.2 to 15.6 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Gabby Seymour | FB | 9.2 | 6.7 to 11.7 | 3.1 to 15.3 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Beth Lynch | INT | 8.9 | 6.5 to 11.4 | 2.9 to 15.0 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Charli Wicksteed | HBFL | 8.9 | 6.4 to 11.3 | 2.8 to 14.9 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Maddie Shevlin | INT | 8.6 | 6.2 to 11.0 | 2.6 to 14.6 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Laura McClelland | FF | 8.4 | 6.0 to 10.8 | 2.5 to 14.3 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Montana Beruldsen | FPR | 8.3 | 5.9 to 10.7 | 2.4 to 14.2 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Poppy Kelly | RK | 8.2 | 5.9 to 10.6 | 2.4 to 14.1 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Isabel Bacon | CHB | 8.0 | 5.6 to 10.3 | 2.2 to 13.8 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Aoibhin Cleary | INT | 7.9 | 5.6 to 10.2 | 2.1 to 13.7 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Mackenzie Ford | WL | 7.7 | 5.3 to 10.0 | 1.9 to 13.4 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Baia Pugh | HBFR | 7.3 | 5.0 to 9.5 | 1.7 to 12.9 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Olivia Wolmarans | CHF | 7.0 | 4.8 to 9.3 | 1.5 to 12.6 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brittany Bonnici | C | 22.3 | 18.7 to 25.8 | 13.5 to 31.1 | 93% | 70% | 34% | 10% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Sarah Rowe | WR | 17.3 | 14.1 to 20.5 | 9.4 to 25.2 | 69% | 30% | 8% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Tarni White | BPL | 17.1 | 13.9 to 20.3 | 9.2 to 24.9 | 67% | 27% | 8% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 25.0 |
| Airlie Runnalls | HBFR | 16.8 | 13.6 to 19.9 | 9.0 to 24.6 | 64% | 25% | 7% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Ashley Centra | HFFR | 13.6 | 10.7 to 16.5 | 6.5 to 20.8 | 37% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Ruby Schleicher | CHF | 13.6 | 10.7 to 16.5 | 6.4 to 20.7 | 37% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Mattea Breed | FPR | 13.0 | 10.1 to 15.8 | 6.0 to 20.0 | 32% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Carly Remmos | INT | 12.2 | 9.4 to 14.9 | 5.3 to 19.0 | 26% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Lucille Cronin | RR | 12.2 | 9.4 to 15.0 | 5.4 to 19.1 | 28% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Amber Schutte | CHB | 9.5 | 7.0 to 12.0 | 3.3 to 15.7 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Sabrina Frederick | INT | 8.7 | 6.3 to 11.1 | 2.7 to 14.7 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Dominique Carbone | INT | 7.8 | 5.5 to 10.2 | 2.1 to 13.6 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Charlotte Brewer | WL | 7.7 | 5.4 to 10.0 | 2.0 to 13.4 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Mischa Barwin | R | 7.7 | 5.4 to 10.0 | 2.0 to 13.4 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Violet Patterson | HBFL | 7.4 | 5.1 to 9.7 | 1.8 to 13.0 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Ariana Hetherington | RK | 7.3 | 5.0 to 9.6 | 1.7 to 12.9 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Zara Neuwirth | FB | 7.3 | 5.0 to 9.5 | 1.7 to 12.9 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jemma Rigoni | HFFL | 7.2 | 4.9 to 9.4 | 1.6 to 12.8 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Imogen Trengove | FF | 7.0 | 4.7 to 9.2 | 1.5 to 12.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Amy Smith | INT | 5.8 | 3.7 to 7.9 | 0.7 to 11.0 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Josephine Bamford | INT | 5.8 | 3.7 to 7.9 | 0.7 to 11.0 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |