AFLW · ROUND 1 · IKON PARK
Richmond v Collingwood
Sat 15 Aug 2026, 5:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
RIC by 0
RIC to win, 50% chance
RIC 50%50% COL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
RIC by 18
HIT Actual margin 18 · 17.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monique Conti | C | 100 | 84 to 115 | 62 to 137 | 91% | 81% | 66% | 48% | 31% | inside our 50% range: 113 |
| Caitlin Greiser | HFFR | 56 | 43 to 68 | 26 to 86 | 23% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 32 |
| Katie Brennan | HFFL | 54 | 41 to 66 | 24 to 83 | 19% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Dana East | INT | 53 | 41 to 65 | 23 to 82 | 15% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Poppy Kelly | RK | 50 | 38 to 62 | 21 to 78 | 15% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 90 |
| Ally Dallaway | INT | 49 | 38 to 61 | 21 to 78 | 15% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 65 |
| Sierra Grieves | R | 48 | 36 to 60 | 19 to 76 | 13% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 67 |
| Beth Lynch | INT | 47 | 35 to 59 | 19 to 75 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 33 |
| Emelia Yassir | RR | 45 | 33 to 56 | 17 to 73 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 79 |
| Rebecca Miller | BPL | 44 | 32 to 55 | 16 to 72 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 35 |
| Isabel Bacon | CHB | 42 | 30 to 53 | 14 to 69 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 27 |
| Libby Graham | WR | 41 | 30 to 52 | 14 to 68 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 71 |
| Charli Wicksteed | HBFL | 40 | 29 to 52 | 14 to 68 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 38 |
| Maddie Shevlin | INT | 38 | 27 to 49 | 12 to 65 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24 |
| Montana Beruldsen | FPR | 38 | 27 to 49 | 12 to 64 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 68 |
| Laura McClelland | FF | 37 | 26 to 48 | 11 to 63 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 69 |
| Gabby Seymour | FB | 36 | 26 to 47 | 10 to 63 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 66 |
| Mackenzie Ford | WL | 36 | 25 to 47 | 10 to 62 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 35 |
| Olivia Wolmarans | CHF | 33 | 23 to 44 | 8 to 58 | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 60 |
| Baia Pugh | HBFR | 33 | 22 to 43 | 8 to 58 | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 45 |
| Aoibhin Cleary | INT | 33 | 22 to 43 | 7 to 58 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 50 |
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brittany Bonnici | C | 99 | 83 to 114 | 62 to 136 | 91% | 80% | 65% | 46% | 30% | inside our 50% range: 85 |
| Airlie Runnalls | HBFR | 76 | 62 to 90 | 42 to 109 | 59% | 41% | 27% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 89 |
| Tarni White | BPL | 71 | 57 to 84 | 38 to 103 | 50% | 33% | 16% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 94 |
| Sarah Rowe | WR | 68 | 55 to 82 | 36 to 100 | 44% | 28% | 15% | 6% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 26 |
| Ashley Centra | HFFR | 65 | 52 to 79 | 34 to 97 | 40% | 24% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Ruby Schleicher | CHF | 61 | 48 to 74 | 30 to 92 | 28% | 15% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 40 |
| Carly Remmos | INT | 59 | 46 to 71 | 28 to 89 | 25% | 12% | 5% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 19 |
| Mattea Breed | FPR | 56 | 44 to 69 | 26 to 87 | 25% | 13% | 5% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 22 |
| Lucille Cronin | RR | 51 | 39 to 63 | 22 to 80 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Sabrina Frederick | INT | 49 | 38 to 61 | 21 to 78 | 15% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 9 |
| Ariana Hetherington | RK | 45 | 33 to 56 | 17 to 73 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 61 |
| Amber Schutte | CHB | 42 | 30 to 53 | 14 to 69 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 57 |
| Mischa Barwin | R | 42 | 30 to 53 | 14 to 69 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Charlotte Brewer | WL | 38 | 27 to 48 | 11 to 64 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 36 |
| Dominique Carbone | INT | 35 | 24 to 46 | 9 to 61 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 43 |
| Imogen Trengove | FF | 34 | 24 to 45 | 9 to 60 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 38 |
| Jemma Rigoni | HFFL | 33 | 22 to 43 | 8 to 58 | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 53 |
| Violet Patterson | HBFL | 33 | 22 to 43 | 8 to 58 | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 104 |
| Zara Neuwirth | FB | 31 | 21 to 41 | 6 to 56 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16 |
| Amy Smith | INT | 29 | 19 to 39 | 5 to 53 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 22 |
| Josephine Bamford | INT | 29 | 19 to 39 | 5 to 53 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 37 |