AFLW · ROUND 1 · IKON PARK
Richmond v Collingwood
Sat 15 Aug 2026, 5:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
RIC by 0
RIC to win, 50% chance
RIC 50%50% COL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
RIC by 18
HIT Actual margin 18 · 17.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caitlin Greiser | HFFR | 1.1 | 0.7 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 70% | 30% | 15% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Katie Brennan | HFFL | 1.0 | 0.6 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 64% | 25% | 11% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Emelia Yassir | RR | 0.6 | 0.3 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 39% | 15% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Laura McClelland | FF | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 39% | 12% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Montana Beruldsen | FPR | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 20% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Olivia Wolmarans | CHF | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 20% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Dana East | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Isabel Bacon | CHB | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 10% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mackenzie Ford | WL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Monique Conti | C | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 10% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Sierra Grieves | R | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 15% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ally Dallaway | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Aoibhin Cleary | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Baia Pugh | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Beth Lynch | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Charli Wicksteed | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Libby Graham | WR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Maddie Shevlin | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Poppy Kelly | RK | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Gabby Seymour | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Rebecca Miller | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashley Centra | HFFR | 0.6 | 0.3 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 43% | 17% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Ruby Schleicher | CHF | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 46% | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jemma Rigoni | HFFL | 0.4 | 0.2 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 30% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Imogen Trengove | FF | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 20% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mattea Breed | FPR | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 20% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Airlie Runnalls | HBFR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Brittany Bonnici | C | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sabrina Frederick | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Amy Smith | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ariana Hetherington | RK | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Carly Remmos | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 15% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Charlotte Brewer | WL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Dominique Carbone | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Josephine Bamford | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 11% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lucille Cronin | RR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mischa Barwin | R | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sarah Rowe | WR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 10% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Violet Patterson | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Zara Neuwirth | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Amber Schutte | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tarni White | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |