AFLW · ROUND 1 · IKON PARK
Richmond v Collingwood
Sat 15 Aug 2026, 5:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
RIC by 0
RIC to win, 50% chance
RIC 50%50% COL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
RIC by 18
HIT Actual margin 18 · 17.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caitlin Greiser | HFFR | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 48% | 26% | 17% | 9% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Katie Brennan | HFFL | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 41% | 24% | 13% | 6% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Beth Lynch | INT | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 24% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Ally Dallaway | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 24% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Laura McClelland | FF | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 17% | 9% | 3% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Libby Graham | WR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 20% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Monique Conti | C | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 24% | 12% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Charli Wicksteed | HBFL | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 20% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Emelia Yassir | RR | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 24% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Gabby Seymour | FB | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Maddie Shevlin | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 17% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Poppy Kelly | RK | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 15% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Rebecca Miller | BPL | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 24% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Sierra Grieves | R | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 16% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Isabel Bacon | CHB | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 15% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Aoibhin Cleary | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Baia Pugh | HBFR | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Dana East | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Mackenzie Ford | WL | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Montana Beruldsen | FPR | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Olivia Wolmarans | CHF | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarni White | BPL | 3.5 | 2.1 to 4.9 | 0.0 to 7.0 | 58% | 39% | 24% | 14% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Airlie Runnalls | HBFR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 38% | 24% | 11% | 4% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Ashley Centra | HFFR | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 35% | 21% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Lucille Cronin | RR | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 33% | 20% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Sarah Rowe | WR | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 24% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Amber Schutte | CHB | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 22% | 10% | 3% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Brittany Bonnici | C | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 24% | 12% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Ruby Schleicher | CHF | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 24% | 12% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Mattea Breed | FPR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 15% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Sabrina Frederick | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 18% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ariana Hetherington | RK | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 11% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Carly Remmos | INT | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 12% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jemma Rigoni | HFFL | 1.4 | 0.4 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Amy Smith | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Charlotte Brewer | WL | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Dominique Carbone | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 8% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Imogen Trengove | FF | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Josephine Bamford | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mischa Barwin | R | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Violet Patterson | HBFL | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Zara Neuwirth | FB | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |