AFLW · ROUND 1 · IKON PARK
Richmond v Collingwood
Sat 15 Aug 2026, 5:05pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
RIC by 0
RIC to win, 50% chance
RIC 50%50% COL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
RIC by 18
HIT Actual margin 18 · 17.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monique Conti | C | 5.8 | 4.0 to 7.6 | 1.7 to 9.9 | 88% | 76% | 64% | 53% | 40% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Dana East | INT | 4.1 | 2.6 to 5.7 | 0.7 to 7.6 | 73% | 56% | 46% | 27% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Isabel Bacon | CHB | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.0 | 0.4 to 6.8 | 62% | 49% | 31% | 15% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Beth Lynch | INT | 3.5 | 2.1 to 4.9 | 0.3 to 6.7 | 56% | 45% | 27% | 15% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Montana Beruldsen | FPR | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.6 | 0.2 to 6.3 | 56% | 40% | 24% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Sierra Grieves | R | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.2 to 6.4 | 61% | 42% | 24% | 13% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Emelia Yassir | RR | 3.2 | 1.9 to 4.6 | 0.2 to 6.3 | 56% | 40% | 24% | 12% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Mackenzie Ford | WL | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 56% | 40% | 24% | 12% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Charli Wicksteed | HBFL | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 56% | 39% | 24% | 11% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ally Dallaway | INT | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 49% | 29% | 14% | 8% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Katie Brennan | HFFL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 40% | 24% | 11% | 5% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Olivia Wolmarans | CHF | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 43% | 23% | 9% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Baia Pugh | HBFR | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 31% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Gabby Seymour | FB | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 37% | 19% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Aoibhin Cleary | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 24% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Laura McClelland | FF | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Poppy Kelly | RK | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 32% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Caitlin Greiser | HFFR | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 24% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Maddie Shevlin | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 22% | 8% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Libby Graham | WR | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 15% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Rebecca Miller | BPL | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 15% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brittany Bonnici | C | 8.3 | 6.1 to 10.5 | 3.4 to 13.1 | 98% | 94% | 86% | 77% | 71% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Carly Remmos | INT | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.7 | 1.2 to 8.7 | 81% | 68% | 49% | 33% | 24% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Airlie Runnalls | HBFR | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.5 | 1.1 to 8.5 | 77% | 64% | 49% | 32% | 24% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Mattea Breed | FPR | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.3 | 1.0 to 8.3 | 75% | 61% | 49% | 32% | 23% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Ruby Schleicher | CHF | 4.7 | 3.1 to 6.4 | 1.1 to 8.4 | 77% | 62% | 49% | 32% | 24% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Dominique Carbone | INT | 3.6 | 2.2 to 5.1 | 0.4 to 6.8 | 64% | 49% | 31% | 15% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Mischa Barwin | R | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.0 | 0.4 to 6.7 | 61% | 46% | 31% | 15% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Ashley Centra | HFFR | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.3 to 6.5 | 65% | 46% | 29% | 14% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Tarni White | BPL | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.2 to 6.4 | 61% | 45% | 26% | 13% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Lucille Cronin | RR | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.2 to 6.2 | 56% | 39% | 24% | 11% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Ariana Hetherington | RK | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.1 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 10% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Amber Schutte | CHB | 2.7 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 53% | 32% | 18% | 8% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Sarah Rowe | WR | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 56% | 37% | 23% | 8% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Charlotte Brewer | WL | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 7% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jemma Rigoni | HFFL | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 7% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Violet Patterson | HBFL | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 52% | 32% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Amy Smith | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 40% | 24% | 9% | 5% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Imogen Trengove | FF | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 49% | 31% | 13% | 7% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Josephine Bamford | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 40% | 24% | 9% | 5% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Zara Neuwirth | FB | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 40% | 24% | 11% | 5% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Sabrina Frederick | INT | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 40% | 15% | 8% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |