AFLW · ROUND 1 · MARVEL STADIUM
St Kilda v Carlton
Sun 9 Aug 2026, 4:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
CAR by 14
CAR to win, 72% chance
STK 28%72% CAR
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
CAR by 26
HIT Actual margin 26 · 12.5 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Summary: our prediction for every market, one row per player. Where the match is played, the actual follows the slash. Choose a market for its ranges and chances.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia Patrikios | C | 19.8 / inside our 90% range: 27.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.6 / outside our 90% range: 7.0 | 4.2 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 80 / inside our 90% range: 112 |
| Serene Watson | HBFL | 19.3 / inside our 50% range: 20.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.9 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.4 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 74 / inside our 50% range: 77 |
| Tyanna Smith | R | 18.1 / inside our 90% range: 24.0 | 0.2 / outside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 6.6 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 85 / inside our 90% range: 101 |
| Jaimee Lambert | RR | 17.2 / inside our 90% range: 13.0 | 0.3 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 5.7 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 78 / inside our 90% range: 50 |
| Ashleigh Richards | HFFL | 13.8 / inside our 50% range: 11.0 | 0.7 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.4 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 5.2 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 68 / inside our 90% range: 54 |
| Alice Burke | HBFR | 12.2 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 3.1 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 53 / inside our 90% range: 34 |
| Nicola Barr | WL | 11.6 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.8 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 48 / inside our 90% range: 28 |
| Jesse Tawhiao-Wardlaw | FF | 11.3 / inside our 50% range: 11.0 | 1.1 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.6 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.0 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 62 / outside our 90% range: 30 |
| Paige Trudgeon | FB | 11.3 / inside our 90% range: 16.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.1 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.7 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 47 / inside our 90% range: 63 |
| Alana Gee | INT | 10.5 / inside our 90% range: 17.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.6 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 3.3 / outside our 90% range: 0.0 | 50 / inside our 50% range: 41 |
| Olivia Vesely | INT | 10.2 / inside our 50% range: 12.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.4 / outside our 90% range: 4.0 | 3.2 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 46 / inside our 50% range: 48 |
| Charlotte Baskaran | WR | 9.3 / outside our 90% range: 19.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.8 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 2.9 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 42 / inside our 90% range: 63 |
| Hannah Priest | HFFR | 8.9 / inside our 50% range: 8.0 | 0.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.9 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 44 / inside our 50% range: 41 |
| Ella Friend | BPL | 8.8 / inside our 50% range: 11.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.2 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 36 / inside our 50% range: 44 |
| Bianca Jakobsson | INT | 8.4 / inside our 90% range: 13.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.0 / outside our 90% range: 6.0 | 2.2 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 35 / outside our 90% range: 61 |
| Amber Clarke | CHF | 8.2 / inside our 50% range: 9.0 | 0.3 / outside our 90% range: 2.0 | 1.3 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 2.5 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 36 / inside our 50% range: 40 |
| J'Noemi Anderson | FPR | 7.9 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 1.8 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 3.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 42 / inside our 90% range: 28 |
| Rene Caris | RK | 7.7 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.3 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 43 / inside our 90% range: 27 |
| Sophie Butterworth | CHB | 7.1 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 0.1 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 1.6 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 32 / inside our 90% range: 18 |
| Abby Hobson | INT | 6.0 / inside our 90% range: 10.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.0 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 27 / inside our 90% range: 39 |
| Zoe Besanko | INT | 6.0 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.0 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 26 / inside our 50% range: 31 |
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mimi Hill | R | 21.7 / inside our 90% range: 28.0 | 0.3 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 3.8 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 80 / inside our 50% range: 84 |
| Abbie McKay | RR | 20.4 / outside our 90% range: 32.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.9 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 4.1 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 78 / outside our 90% range: 119 |
| Dayna Finn | WL | 20.1 / inside our 50% range: 22.0 | 0.7 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 3.0 / outside our 90% range: 7.0 | 3.4 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 82 / inside our 90% range: 100 |
| Claudia Whitfort | C | 18.6 / outside our 90% range: 27.0 | 0.3 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 4.1 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 70 / inside our 90% range: 102 |
| Erone Fitzpatrick | CHF | 16.4 / inside our 50% range: 15.0 | 0.9 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 3.7 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 71 / inside our 90% range: 48 |
| Harriet Cordner | BPL | 12.7 / inside our 50% range: 15.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.4 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 1.8 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 50 / inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Lily Goss | INT | 11.3 / outside our 90% range: 19.0 | 0.2 / outside our 90% range: 2.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 4.4 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 55 / inside our 90% range: 84 |
| Ciara Fitzgerald | CHB | 11.0 / inside our 50% range: 9.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.8 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.4 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 45 / inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Amelia Velardo | HBFL | 10.8 / inside our 90% range: 16.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.8 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 1.8 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 43 / inside our 90% range: 61 |
| Poppy Scholz | HFFL | 10.2 / inside our 90% range: 13.0 | 1.0 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 2.2 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.6 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 49 / inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Jessica Good | RK | 9.7 / inside our 50% range: 12.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.2 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.5 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 57 / inside our 90% range: 71 |
| Darcy Vescio | FPR | 9.5 / inside our 50% range: 11.0 | 0.3 / outside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.0 / outside our 90% range: 5.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 41 / inside our 90% range: 63 |
| Yasmin Duursma | WR | 9.2 / inside our 90% range: 12.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.9 / outside our 90% range: 5.0 | 2.7 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 42 / inside our 90% range: 57 |
| Brooke Vickers | INT | 8.7 / inside our 50% range: 8.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.6 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.3 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 38 / inside our 50% range: 32 |
| Tara Bohanna | INT | 8.3 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 1.1 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 1.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 43 / inside our 90% range: 22 |
| Brooke Boileau | INT | 8.2 / inside our 50% range: 9.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.0 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.6 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 40 / inside our 50% range: 36 |
| Madeline Hendrie | FB | 8.2 / inside our 50% range: 8.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 1.5 / outside our 90% range: 4.0 | 32 / inside our 50% range: 38 |
| Gabriella Pound | INT | 8.0 / inside our 50% range: 9.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.0 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.4 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 32 / inside our 50% range: 36 |
| Lila Keck | HFFR | 7.5 / outside our 90% range: 21.0 | 0.5 / outside our 90% range: 2.0 | 1.8 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 2.4 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 35 / outside our 90% range: 86 |
| Nell Morris-Dalton | FF | 7.3 / inside our 50% range: 8.0 | 0.7 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 1.6 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 36 / inside our 50% range: 38 |
| Siofra O'Connell | HBFR | 7.1 / inside our 90% range: 12.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 1.0 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.2 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 30 / inside our 90% range: 44 |