AFLW · ROUND 1 · MARVEL STADIUM
St Kilda v Carlton
Sun 9 Aug 2026, 4:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
CAR by 14
CAR to win, 72% chance
STK 28%72% CAR
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
CAR by 26
HIT Actual margin 26 · 12.5 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia Patrikios | C | 19.8 | 16.4 to 23.2 | 11.4 to 28.2 | 84% | 52% | 18% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 27.0 |
| Serene Watson | HBFL | 19.3 | 16.0 to 22.7 | 11.0 to 27.6 | 81% | 44% | 14% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Tyanna Smith | R | 18.1 | 14.9 to 21.4 | 10.1 to 26.2 | 75% | 36% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Jaimee Lambert | RR | 17.2 | 14.0 to 20.3 | 9.3 to 25.0 | 67% | 28% | 8% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Ashleigh Richards | HFFL | 13.8 | 10.9 to 16.8 | 6.6 to 21.1 | 37% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Alice Burke | HBFR | 12.2 | 9.4 to 14.9 | 5.3 to 19.0 | 27% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Nicola Barr | WL | 11.6 | 8.9 to 14.4 | 4.9 to 18.4 | 21% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Jesse Tawhiao-Wardlaw | FF | 11.3 | 8.6 to 14.0 | 4.7 to 18.0 | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Paige Trudgeon | FB | 11.3 | 8.6 to 14.0 | 4.7 to 18.0 | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Alana Gee | INT | 10.5 | 7.9 to 13.2 | 4.1 to 17.0 | 14% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Olivia Vesely | INT | 10.2 | 7.6 to 12.8 | 3.8 to 16.6 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Charlotte Baskaran | WR | 9.3 | 6.8 to 11.8 | 3.1 to 15.4 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Hannah Priest | HFFR | 8.9 | 6.5 to 11.4 | 2.9 to 15.0 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Ella Friend | BPL | 8.8 | 6.4 to 11.3 | 2.8 to 14.9 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Bianca Jakobsson | INT | 8.4 | 6.0 to 10.8 | 2.5 to 14.3 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Amber Clarke | CHF | 8.2 | 5.8 to 10.6 | 2.3 to 14.1 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| J'Noemi Anderson | FPR | 7.9 | 5.5 to 10.2 | 2.1 to 13.7 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Rene Caris | RK | 7.7 | 5.4 to 10.0 | 2.0 to 13.4 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Sophie Butterworth | CHB | 7.1 | 4.9 to 9.4 | 1.6 to 12.7 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Abby Hobson | INT | 6.0 | 3.9 to 8.1 | 0.8 to 11.2 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Zoe Besanko | INT | 6.0 | 3.9 to 8.1 | 0.8 to 11.2 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mimi Hill | R | 21.7 | 18.1 to 25.2 | 13.0 to 30.4 | 92% | 65% | 29% | 8% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 28.0 |
| Abbie McKay | RR | 20.4 | 16.9 to 23.8 | 11.9 to 28.8 | 87% | 56% | 22% | 4% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 32.0 |
| Dayna Finn | WL | 20.1 | 16.7 to 23.5 | 11.7 to 28.5 | 86% | 54% | 19% | 4% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Claudia Whitfort | C | 18.6 | 15.3 to 21.9 | 10.5 to 26.7 | 77% | 39% | 12% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 27.0 |
| Erone Fitzpatrick | CHF | 16.4 | 13.3 to 19.5 | 8.7 to 24.1 | 64% | 24% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Harriet Cordner | BPL | 12.7 | 9.9 to 15.5 | 5.7 to 19.7 | 30% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Lily Goss | INT | 11.3 | 8.6 to 14.0 | 4.7 to 17.9 | 19% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Ciara Fitzgerald | CHB | 11.0 | 8.3 to 13.7 | 4.4 to 17.6 | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Amelia Velardo | HBFL | 10.8 | 8.2 to 13.5 | 4.3 to 17.4 | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Poppy Scholz | HFFL | 10.2 | 7.6 to 12.8 | 3.8 to 16.6 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Jessica Good | RK | 9.7 | 7.2 to 12.2 | 3.4 to 15.9 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Darcy Vescio | FPR | 9.5 | 7.0 to 12.0 | 3.3 to 15.7 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Yasmin Duursma | WR | 9.2 | 6.7 to 11.7 | 3.1 to 15.4 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Brooke Vickers | INT | 8.7 | 6.2 to 11.1 | 2.7 to 14.7 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Tara Bohanna | INT | 8.3 | 5.9 to 10.7 | 2.4 to 14.2 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Brooke Boileau | INT | 8.2 | 5.8 to 10.6 | 2.3 to 14.1 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Madeline Hendrie | FB | 8.2 | 5.8 to 10.5 | 2.3 to 14.0 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Gabriella Pound | INT | 8.0 | 5.7 to 10.4 | 2.2 to 13.8 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Lila Keck | HFFR | 7.5 | 5.2 to 9.8 | 1.8 to 13.2 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Nell Morris-Dalton | FF | 7.3 | 5.0 to 9.6 | 1.7 to 12.9 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Siofra O'Connell | HBFR | 7.1 | 4.9 to 9.4 | 1.6 to 12.7 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |