AFLW · ROUND 1 · MARVEL STADIUM
St Kilda v Carlton
Sun 9 Aug 2026, 4:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
CAR by 14
CAR to win, 72% chance
STK 28%72% CAR
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
CAR by 26
HIT Actual margin 26 · 12.5 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyanna Smith | R | 85 | 71 to 100 | 50 to 120 | 77% | 59% | 39% | 24% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 101 |
| Georgia Patrikios | C | 80 | 66 to 95 | 46 to 115 | 70% | 50% | 31% | 17% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 112 |
| Jaimee Lambert | RR | 78 | 64 to 92 | 44 to 111 | 63% | 44% | 30% | 14% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 50 |
| Serene Watson | HBFL | 74 | 60 to 88 | 41 to 107 | 57% | 39% | 24% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 77 |
| Ashleigh Richards | HFFL | 68 | 55 to 82 | 36 to 100 | 44% | 28% | 15% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 54 |
| Jesse Tawhiao-Wardlaw | FF | 62 | 49 to 75 | 30 to 93 | 30% | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 30 |
| Alice Burke | HBFR | 53 | 41 to 66 | 24 to 83 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 34 |
| Alana Gee | INT | 50 | 38 to 62 | 21 to 79 | 16% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 41 |
| Nicola Barr | WL | 48 | 36 to 60 | 19 to 77 | 13% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 28 |
| Paige Trudgeon | FB | 47 | 35 to 59 | 19 to 75 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 63 |
| Olivia Vesely | INT | 46 | 34 to 58 | 18 to 74 | 10% | 4% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 48 |
| Hannah Priest | HFFR | 44 | 32 to 55 | 16 to 71 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 41 |
| Rene Caris | RK | 43 | 31 to 54 | 15 to 70 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 27 |
| Charlotte Baskaran | WR | 42 | 31 to 53 | 15 to 69 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 63 |
| J'Noemi Anderson | FPR | 42 | 30 to 53 | 14 to 69 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 28 |
| Ella Friend | BPL | 36 | 25 to 47 | 10 to 62 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 44 |
| Amber Clarke | CHF | 36 | 25 to 47 | 10 to 62 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 40 |
| Bianca Jakobsson | INT | 35 | 24 to 46 | 9 to 61 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 61 |
| Sophie Butterworth | CHB | 32 | 22 to 42 | 7 to 57 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18 |
| Abby Hobson | INT | 27 | 17 to 37 | 3 to 51 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 39 |
| Zoe Besanko | INT | 26 | 17 to 36 | 3 to 50 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 31 |
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dayna Finn | WL | 82 | 68 to 97 | 48 to 117 | 72% | 52% | 33% | 19% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 100 |
| Mimi Hill | R | 80 | 66 to 94 | 46 to 114 | 69% | 49% | 30% | 16% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 84 |
| Abbie McKay | RR | 78 | 64 to 92 | 44 to 112 | 63% | 46% | 30% | 14% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 119 |
| Erone Fitzpatrick | CHF | 71 | 57 to 84 | 38 to 103 | 50% | 33% | 16% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 48 |
| Claudia Whitfort | C | 70 | 57 to 84 | 38 to 103 | 50% | 33% | 16% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 102 |
| Jessica Good | RK | 57 | 44 to 69 | 26 to 87 | 26% | 13% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 71 |
| Lily Goss | INT | 55 | 43 to 68 | 25 to 85 | 22% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 84 |
| Harriet Cordner | BPL | 50 | 38 to 62 | 21 to 79 | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Poppy Scholz | HFFL | 49 | 37 to 61 | 20 to 78 | 14% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Ciara Fitzgerald | CHB | 45 | 34 to 57 | 17 to 73 | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Amelia Velardo | HBFL | 43 | 32 to 55 | 16 to 71 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 61 |
| Tara Bohanna | INT | 43 | 31 to 54 | 15 to 70 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22 |
| Yasmin Duursma | WR | 42 | 31 to 53 | 15 to 69 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 57 |
| Darcy Vescio | FPR | 41 | 30 to 53 | 14 to 68 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 63 |
| Brooke Boileau | INT | 40 | 29 to 51 | 13 to 67 | 4% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 36 |
| Brooke Vickers | INT | 38 | 28 to 50 | 12 to 65 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 32 |
| Nell Morris-Dalton | FF | 36 | 25 to 47 | 10 to 62 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 38 |
| Lila Keck | HFFR | 35 | 24 to 46 | 9 to 61 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 86 |
| Gabriella Pound | INT | 32 | 22 to 43 | 7 to 58 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 36 |
| Madeline Hendrie | FB | 32 | 22 to 43 | 7 to 57 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 38 |
| Siofra O'Connell | HBFR | 30 | 19 to 40 | 5 to 54 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 44 |