AFLW · ROUND 1 · MARVEL STADIUM
St Kilda v Carlton
Sun 9 Aug 2026, 4:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
CAR by 14
CAR to win, 72% chance
STK 28%72% CAR
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
CAR by 26
HIT Actual margin 26 · 12.5 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesse Tawhiao-Wardlaw | FF | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.0 | 0.0 to 7.1 | 58% | 39% | 24% | 14% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Serene Watson | HBFL | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 48% | 25% | 15% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Georgia Patrikios | C | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 38% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Ashleigh Richards | HFFL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 38% | 24% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Hannah Priest | HFFR | 2.1 | 0.9 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 25% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jaimee Lambert | RR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 24% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Paige Trudgeon | FB | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 29% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Alice Burke | HBFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 22% | 9% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Bianca Jakobsson | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 21% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Nicola Barr | WL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 24% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Tyanna Smith | R | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 15% | 9% | 4% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Charlotte Baskaran | WR | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 15% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| J'Noemi Anderson | FPR | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 15% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Alana Gee | INT | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 12% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Sophie Butterworth | CHB | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Olivia Vesely | INT | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 7% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Amber Clarke | CHF | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 11% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Rene Caris | RK | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ella Friend | BPL | 1.2 | 0.3 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Abby Hobson | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Zoe Besanko | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harriet Cordner | BPL | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.0 to 6.9 | 58% | 39% | 24% | 14% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Dayna Finn | WL | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 48% | 26% | 17% | 9% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Poppy Scholz | HFFL | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 26% | 15% | 8% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Erone Fitzpatrick | CHF | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 20% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Madeline Hendrie | FB | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 20% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Tara Bohanna | INT | 2.1 | 0.9 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 25% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Darcy Vescio | FPR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 22% | 11% | 4% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Mimi Hill | R | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 17% | 9% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Abbie McKay | RR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 17% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Claudia Whitfort | C | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 14% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Yasmin Duursma | WR | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 13% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Amelia Velardo | HBFL | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 17% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ciara Fitzgerald | CHB | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 14% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Lila Keck | HFFR | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 14% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Lily Goss | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 15% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Brooke Vickers | INT | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Nell Morris-Dalton | FF | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jessica Good | RK | 1.2 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Brooke Boileau | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 9% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Gabriella Pound | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Siofra O'Connell | HBFR | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |