AFLW · ROUND 1 · MARVEL STADIUM
St Kilda v Carlton
Sun 9 Aug 2026, 4:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIPNEW MODEL
CAR by 14
CAR to win, 72% chance
STK 28%72% CAR
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
CAR by 26
HIT Actual margin 26 · 12.5 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
NEW MODEL
21 Sep 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyanna Smith | R | 6.6 | 4.6 to 8.5 | 2.3 to 10.9 | 91% | 84% | 71% | 61% | 49% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Jaimee Lambert | RR | 5.7 | 3.9 to 7.6 | 1.7 to 9.8 | 86% | 74% | 64% | 53% | 40% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Ashleigh Richards | HFFL | 5.2 | 3.5 to 7.0 | 1.4 to 9.1 | 84% | 71% | 55% | 40% | 27% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Georgia Patrikios | C | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.7 to 7.7 | 74% | 56% | 46% | 31% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Alana Gee | INT | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.3 to 6.4 | 64% | 46% | 27% | 14% | 9% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| J'Noemi Anderson | FPR | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.3 to 6.4 | 64% | 46% | 27% | 13% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Olivia Vesely | INT | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.2 to 6.1 | 49% | 32% | 15% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Alice Burke | HBFR | 3.1 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.1 to 6.1 | 49% | 31% | 15% | 10% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Charlotte Baskaran | WR | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 46% | 27% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Hannah Priest | HFFR | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 56% | 40% | 24% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Nicola Barr | WL | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 53% | 32% | 23% | 11% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Paige Trudgeon | FB | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 56% | 37% | 23% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Amber Clarke | CHF | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 40% | 24% | 11% | 7% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Serene Watson | HBFL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 40% | 24% | 11% | 5% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Bianca Jakobsson | INT | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 38% | 15% | 8% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Abby Hobson | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 27% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Rene Caris | RK | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Sophie Butterworth | CHB | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 31% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jesse Tawhiao-Wardlaw | FF | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 32% | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Zoe Besanko | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 38% | 18% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Ella Friend | BPL | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 23% | 8% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lily Goss | INT | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.0 | 0.9 to 8.0 | 77% | 64% | 49% | 32% | 23% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Abbie McKay | RR | 4.1 | 2.6 to 5.7 | 0.7 to 7.6 | 73% | 56% | 46% | 27% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Claudia Whitfort | C | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.6 | 0.7 to 7.5 | 71% | 56% | 45% | 27% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Mimi Hill | R | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.5 to 7.1 | 65% | 49% | 37% | 24% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Erone Fitzpatrick | CHF | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.1 | 0.4 to 6.9 | 65% | 49% | 32% | 15% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Brooke Boileau | INT | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.0 | 0.4 to 6.8 | 64% | 49% | 31% | 15% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Dayna Finn | WL | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.3 to 6.5 | 53% | 37% | 24% | 11% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Yasmin Duursma | WR | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 49% | 27% | 15% | 8% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Poppy Scholz | HFFL | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 53% | 32% | 15% | 9% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jessica Good | RK | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 42% | 26% | 13% | 7% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ciara Fitzgerald | CHB | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 45% | 24% | 11% | 6% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Gabriella Pound | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 35% | 21% | 9% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Lila Keck | HFFR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 46% | 24% | 11% | 6% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Brooke Vickers | INT | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 32% | 17% | 7% | 5% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Siofra O'Connell | HBFR | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 40% | 24% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Amelia Velardo | HBFL | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 27% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Harriet Cordner | BPL | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 32% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Darcy Vescio | FPR | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 23% | 8% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Nell Morris-Dalton | FF | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 20% | 8% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Madeline Hendrie | FB | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 14% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Tara Bohanna | INT | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 14% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |