AFLW · ROUND 10 · UNLEY OVAL
Adelaide Crows v Gold Coast SUNS
Sat 17 Oct 2026, 1:05pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
ADE by 5
ADE to win, 59% chance
ADE 59%41% GCS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ADE by 10
HIT Actual margin 10 · 4.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Adelaide Crows
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ebony Marinoff | R | 25.6 | 21.9 to 29.4 | 16.3 to 35.0 | 97% | 88% | 62% | 27% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| Sarah Goodwin | C | 21.8 | 18.2 to 25.3 | 13.1 to 30.5 | 93% | 70% | 33% | 9% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Madison Newman | WL | 20.3 | 16.9 to 23.7 | 11.9 to 28.8 | 90% | 60% | 23% | 5% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Grace Egan | HFFR | 19.5 | 16.1 to 22.9 | 11.2 to 27.8 | 84% | 49% | 17% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Niamh Kelly | WR | 17.8 | 14.5 to 21.0 | 9.8 to 25.8 | 76% | 37% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Teah Charlton | RR | 15.2 | 12.2 to 18.2 | 7.7 to 22.7 | 59% | 20% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Grace Kelly | CHF | 13.0 | 10.2 to 15.9 | 6.0 to 20.1 | 36% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Chloe Bown | INT | 12.8 | 10.0 to 15.7 | 5.8 to 19.8 | 35% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 25.0 |
| Sarah Allan | FB | 11.0 | 8.4 to 13.7 | 4.4 to 17.6 | 22% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Jemmika Douglas | BPL | 10.3 | 7.7 to 12.9 | 3.9 to 16.7 | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Caitlin Gould | FF | 10.2 | 7.6 to 12.8 | 3.8 to 16.6 | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Eloise Jones | HFFL | 10.1 | 7.5 to 12.7 | 3.7 to 16.4 | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Brooke Tonon | HBFL | 9.4 | 6.9 to 11.9 | 3.2 to 15.6 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Keeley Kustermann | HBFR | 9.4 | 6.9 to 11.9 | 3.2 to 15.6 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| India Rasheed | INT | 9.0 | 6.5 to 11.4 | 2.9 to 15.0 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Jess Allan | RK | 8.9 | 6.4 to 11.3 | 2.8 to 14.9 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Alice Tentye | FPR | 8.8 | 6.4 to 11.2 | 2.8 to 14.8 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Amy Boyle-Carr | INT | 8.6 | 6.2 to 11.0 | 2.6 to 14.5 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Ava Stewart | CHB | 7.9 | 5.5 to 10.2 | 2.1 to 13.6 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Lily Tarlinton | INT | 6.7 | 4.5 to 8.9 | 1.3 to 12.2 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Kayleigh Cronin | INT | 6.1 | 3.9 to 8.2 | 0.8 to 11.3 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
Gold Coast SUNS
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Rowbottom | C | 28.9 | 25.0 to 32.9 | 19.1 to 38.8 | 99% | 96% | 80% | 49% | 20% | outside our 90% range: 42.0 |
| Niamh McLaughlin | CHB | 23.4 | 19.8 to 27.1 | 14.5 to 32.4 | 96% | 79% | 45% | 16% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Lucy Single | R | 22.3 | 18.7 to 25.8 | 13.5 to 31.1 | 94% | 73% | 37% | 11% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Daisy D'Arcy | HBFR | 21.2 | 17.7 to 24.7 | 12.6 to 29.8 | 92% | 66% | 29% | 7% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Anne Hatchard | RR | 19.9 | 16.5 to 23.3 | 11.5 to 28.3 | 88% | 56% | 21% | 4% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Maddy Brancatisano | CHF | 15.5 | 12.5 to 18.6 | 8.0 to 23.1 | 61% | 21% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Havana Harris | FPR | 13.5 | 10.6 to 16.4 | 6.4 to 20.6 | 38% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Heidi Talbot | WR | 13.5 | 10.6 to 16.4 | 6.4 to 20.7 | 38% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Ava Usher | HFFL | 13.2 | 10.3 to 16.1 | 6.1 to 20.3 | 37% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Meara Girvan | FB | 13.0 | 10.2 to 15.9 | 6.0 to 20.0 | 37% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Darcie Davies | RK | 11.7 | 8.9 to 14.4 | 4.9 to 18.4 | 24% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Mikayla Nurse | WL | 11.6 | 8.8 to 14.3 | 4.8 to 18.3 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Sunny Lappin | INT | 11.1 | 8.5 to 13.8 | 4.5 to 17.8 | 23% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Georja Davies | HBFL | 10.4 | 7.8 to 13.0 | 3.9 to 16.8 | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Clara Fitzpatrick | BPL | 10.3 | 7.7 to 12.9 | 3.9 to 16.7 | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Bronte Parker | INT | 8.9 | 6.4 to 11.3 | 2.8 to 14.9 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Dekota Baron | FF | 8.8 | 6.4 to 11.3 | 2.8 to 14.9 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Rhianna Ingram | INT | 8.2 | 5.9 to 10.6 | 2.4 to 14.1 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Lily Quigley | HFFR | 8.0 | 5.7 to 10.4 | 2.2 to 13.8 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Paige Price | INT | 6.6 | 4.4 to 8.8 | 1.2 to 12.0 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Ellie Veerhuis | INT | 5.6 | 3.5 to 7.6 | 0.5 to 10.6 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |