AFLW · ROUND 10 · UNLEY OVAL
Adelaide Crows v Gold Coast SUNS
Sat 17 Oct 2026, 1:05pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
ADE by 5
ADE to win, 59% chance
ADE 59%41% GCS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ADE by 10
HIT Actual margin 10 · 4.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Adelaide Crows
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ebony Marinoff | R | 115 | 98 to 131 | 76 to 154 | 98% | 94% | 85% | 74% | 58% | inside our 50% range: 100 |
| Sarah Goodwin | C | 83 | 69 to 97 | 48 to 118 | 74% | 56% | 35% | 21% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 77 |
| Grace Egan | HFFR | 75 | 61 to 89 | 42 to 109 | 59% | 41% | 26% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 56 |
| Teah Charlton | RR | 71 | 57 to 84 | 38 to 104 | 52% | 34% | 17% | 9% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Madison Newman | WL | 69 | 55 to 82 | 36 to 101 | 45% | 29% | 17% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Niamh Kelly | WR | 65 | 52 to 78 | 34 to 97 | 40% | 24% | 12% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 81 |
| Jess Allan | RK | 59 | 46 to 71 | 28 to 89 | 26% | 12% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 30 |
| Grace Kelly | CHF | 56 | 44 to 69 | 26 to 87 | 26% | 14% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Caitlin Gould | FF | 55 | 43 to 67 | 25 to 85 | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 25 |
| Chloe Bown | INT | 54 | 42 to 66 | 24 to 84 | 21% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 110 |
| Eloise Jones | HFFL | 48 | 36 to 60 | 19 to 76 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 27 |
| Sarah Allan | FB | 46 | 34 to 57 | 18 to 74 | 10% | 4% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 70 |
| India Rasheed | INT | 43 | 32 to 55 | 16 to 71 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Brooke Tonon | HBFL | 43 | 31 to 54 | 15 to 70 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 43 |
| Keeley Kustermann | HBFR | 42 | 31 to 53 | 15 to 69 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 47 |
| Jemmika Douglas | BPL | 40 | 29 to 51 | 13 to 67 | 5% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 58 |
| Alice Tentye | FPR | 38 | 27 to 49 | 12 to 65 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 25 |
| Amy Boyle-Carr | INT | 36 | 25 to 46 | 10 to 61 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6 |
| Ava Stewart | CHB | 34 | 23 to 45 | 8 to 60 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 49 |
| Lily Tarlinton | INT | 33 | 23 to 44 | 8 to 59 | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21 |
| Kayleigh Cronin | INT | 30 | 20 to 40 | 6 to 55 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 24 |
Gold Coast SUNS
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Rowbottom | C | 105 | 89 to 120 | 67 to 143 | 94% | 86% | 75% | 59% | 40% | outside our 90% range: 144 |
| Lucy Single | R | 84 | 70 to 99 | 49 to 119 | 76% | 58% | 38% | 23% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 77 |
| Anne Hatchard | RR | 80 | 66 to 95 | 46 to 115 | 71% | 52% | 32% | 17% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 83 |
| Niamh McLaughlin | CHB | 76 | 62 to 90 | 43 to 110 | 61% | 43% | 29% | 13% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 53 |
| Daisy D'Arcy | HBFR | 75 | 61 to 89 | 41 to 108 | 59% | 40% | 26% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Darcie Davies | RK | 65 | 52 to 78 | 33 to 96 | 39% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Havana Harris | FPR | 64 | 51 to 77 | 32 to 96 | 37% | 23% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Ava Usher | HFFL | 61 | 48 to 74 | 30 to 92 | 29% | 15% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Maddy Brancatisano | CHF | 56 | 43 to 68 | 26 to 86 | 24% | 13% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 44 |
| Heidi Talbot | WR | 53 | 40 to 65 | 23 to 82 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 25 |
| Meara Girvan | FB | 50 | 38 to 62 | 21 to 79 | 17% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Mikayla Nurse | WL | 48 | 36 to 60 | 20 to 77 | 13% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 28 |
| Dekota Baron | FF | 45 | 33 to 57 | 17 to 73 | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 15 |
| Sunny Lappin | INT | 44 | 32 to 56 | 16 to 72 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 26 |
| Clara Fitzpatrick | BPL | 43 | 32 to 54 | 16 to 71 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 41 |
| Georja Davies | HBFL | 43 | 32 to 54 | 15 to 70 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 47 |
| Lily Quigley | HFFR | 37 | 26 to 48 | 11 to 63 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11 |
| Bronte Parker | INT | 36 | 25 to 46 | 10 to 62 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 63 |
| Rhianna Ingram | INT | 35 | 25 to 46 | 10 to 61 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20 |
| Paige Price | INT | 34 | 23 to 44 | 8 to 59 | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 44 |
| Ellie Veerhuis | INT | 29 | 19 to 40 | 5 to 54 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21 |