AFLW · ROUND 10 · UNLEY OVAL
Adelaide Crows v Gold Coast SUNS
Sat 17 Oct 2026, 1:05pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
ADE by 5
ADE to win, 59% chance
ADE 59%41% GCS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ADE by 10
HIT Actual margin 10 · 4.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Adelaide Crows
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caitlin Gould | FF | 1.0 | 0.6 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 63% | 23% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Eloise Jones | HFFL | 0.7 | 0.3 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 42% | 14% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Grace Kelly | CHF | 0.7 | 0.4 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 42% | 14% | 5% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Grace Egan | HFFR | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 42% | 14% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| India Rasheed | INT | 0.5 | 0.2 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 37% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Alice Tentye | FPR | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 26% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Madison Newman | WL | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 26% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Teah Charlton | RR | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 26% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Chloe Bown | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 17% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Ebony Marinoff | R | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Niamh Kelly | WR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Sarah Goodwin | C | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Amy Boyle-Carr | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ava Stewart | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jess Allan | RK | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Kayleigh Cronin | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lily Tarlinton | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Brooke Tonon | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jemmika Douglas | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Keeley Kustermann | HBFR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sarah Allan | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Gold Coast SUNS
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Havana Harris | FPR | 1.4 | 0.9 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 63% | 37% | 17% | 7% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Anne Hatchard | RR | 0.8 | 0.4 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 59% | 19% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Dekota Baron | FF | 0.8 | 0.4 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 60% | 20% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ava Usher | HFFL | 0.6 | 0.3 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 42% | 14% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Lily Quigley | HFFR | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 30% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Charlie Rowbottom | C | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 26% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Darcie Davies | RK | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 26% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Lucy Single | R | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 26% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Maddy Brancatisano | CHF | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 26% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sunny Lappin | INT | 0.3 | 0.1 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 30% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Mikayla Nurse | WL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Bronte Parker | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Daisy D'Arcy | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ellie Veerhuis | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Heidi Talbot | WR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 16% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Meara Girvan | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Niamh McLaughlin | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Paige Price | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 8% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Rhianna Ingram | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Clara Fitzpatrick | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Georja Davies | HBFL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |