AFLW · ROUND 10 · UNLEY OVAL
Adelaide Crows v Gold Coast SUNS
Sat 17 Oct 2026, 1:05pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
ADE by 5
ADE to win, 59% chance
ADE 59%41% GCS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ADE by 10
HIT Actual margin 10 · 4.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Adelaide Crows
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caitlin Gould | FF | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.0 to 6.7 | 48% | 32% | 18% | 10% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Grace Egan | HFFR | 3.1 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.4 | 46% | 32% | 17% | 10% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Ebony Marinoff | R | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 40% | 24% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Eloise Jones | HFFL | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 40% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Madison Newman | WL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 32% | 18% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Sarah Allan | FB | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 32% | 18% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| India Rasheed | INT | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 32% | 18% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Jemmika Douglas | BPL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 22% | 14% | 5% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Brooke Tonon | HBFL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Grace Kelly | CHF | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Niamh Kelly | WR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Sarah Goodwin | C | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 22% | 14% | 5% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Teah Charlton | RR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Keeley Kustermann | HBFR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Alice Tentye | FPR | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 15% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Chloe Bown | INT | 1.5 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Ava Stewart | CHB | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 13% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jess Allan | RK | 1.2 | 0.3 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Amy Boyle-Carr | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Kayleigh Cronin | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Lily Tarlinton | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
Gold Coast SUNS
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anne Hatchard | RR | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.2 | 0.2 to 7.4 | 59% | 43% | 29% | 17% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Havana Harris | FPR | 3.2 | 1.9 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.6 | 47% | 32% | 17% | 10% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Meara Girvan | FB | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 44% | 29% | 16% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Charlie Rowbottom | C | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 44% | 29% | 16% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Niamh McLaughlin | CHB | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 40% | 24% | 14% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Darcie Davies | RK | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 40% | 24% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Georja Davies | HBFL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 32% | 18% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Dekota Baron | FF | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 32% | 18% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Daisy D'Arcy | HBFR | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 25% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Mikayla Nurse | WL | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 25% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Clara Fitzpatrick | BPL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 25% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Lucy Single | R | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Ava Usher | HFFL | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 15% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Heidi Talbot | WR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 15% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Maddy Brancatisano | CHF | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Lily Quigley | HFFR | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Rhianna Ingram | INT | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Sunny Lappin | INT | 1.1 | 0.3 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Bronte Parker | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Ellie Veerhuis | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Paige Price | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |