AFLW · ROUND 10 · UNLEY OVAL
Adelaide Crows v Gold Coast SUNS
Sat 17 Oct 2026, 1:05pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
ADE by 5
ADE to win, 59% chance
ADE 59%41% GCS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
ADE by 10
HIT Actual margin 10 · 4.6 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Adelaide Crows
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ebony Marinoff | R | 9.2 | 6.9 to 11.6 | 4.1 to 14.4 | 99% | 96% | 91% | 84% | 75% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Teah Charlton | RR | 5.9 | 4.1 to 7.8 | 1.8 to 10.0 | 87% | 77% | 62% | 49% | 37% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Sarah Goodwin | C | 4.5 | 2.9 to 6.2 | 0.9 to 8.1 | 76% | 60% | 42% | 26% | 18% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Grace Egan | HFFR | 4.0 | 2.5 to 5.5 | 0.6 to 7.3 | 71% | 54% | 37% | 24% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Chloe Bown | INT | 3.5 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.3 to 6.6 | 60% | 42% | 26% | 14% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Niamh Kelly | WR | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.0 | 51% | 28% | 16% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jess Allan | RK | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 51% | 28% | 16% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Brooke Tonon | HBFL | 2.7 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 54% | 35% | 18% | 9% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Keeley Kustermann | HBFR | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 51% | 29% | 15% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Grace Kelly | CHF | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 44% | 24% | 12% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Lily Tarlinton | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 37% | 21% | 9% | 4% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jemmika Douglas | BPL | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 36% | 17% | 7% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Amy Boyle-Carr | INT | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 36% | 17% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Madison Newman | WL | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 30% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sarah Allan | FB | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 36% | 17% | 7% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Alice Tentye | FPR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 30% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Eloise Jones | HFFL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 30% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| India Rasheed | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 30% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ava Stewart | CHB | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 29% | 14% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Caitlin Gould | FF | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 29% | 14% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Kayleigh Cronin | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 23% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
Gold Coast SUNS
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Rowbottom | C | 6.2 | 4.3 to 8.2 | 2.0 to 10.4 | 88% | 80% | 66% | 54% | 42% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Lucy Single | R | 5.7 | 3.8 to 7.5 | 1.7 to 9.7 | 85% | 75% | 60% | 46% | 35% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Anne Hatchard | RR | 4.5 | 2.9 to 6.1 | 0.9 to 8.1 | 76% | 60% | 42% | 26% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Ava Usher | HFFL | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.0 | 0.9 to 7.9 | 71% | 55% | 41% | 28% | 18% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Daisy D'Arcy | HBFR | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.5 to 7.0 | 60% | 42% | 26% | 14% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Darcie Davies | RK | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.0 | 51% | 28% | 16% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Maddy Brancatisano | CHF | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.0 | 51% | 28% | 16% | 8% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Paige Price | INT | 2.7 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 51% | 29% | 15% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Havana Harris | FPR | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 51% | 29% | 15% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Mikayla Nurse | WL | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 51% | 29% | 15% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Heidi Talbot | WR | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 44% | 24% | 12% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Lily Quigley | HFFR | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 44% | 24% | 12% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Clara Fitzpatrick | BPL | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 36% | 17% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Georja Davies | HBFL | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 30% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Niamh McLaughlin | CHB | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 36% | 17% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Bronte Parker | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 30% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Dekota Baron | FF | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 30% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Meara Girvan | FB | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 30% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Rhianna Ingram | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 38% | 18% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Sunny Lappin | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 29% | 14% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ellie Veerhuis | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 23% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |