AFLW · ROUND 10 · BRIGHTON HOMES ARENA
Brisbane Lions v Port Adelaide
Sat 17 Oct 2026, 5:05pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
BRI by 0
BRI to win, 50% chance
BRI 50%50% PA
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
BRI by 16
HIT Actual margin 16 · 15.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Brisbane Lions
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandra Anderson | C | 22.6 | 19.0 to 26.2 | 13.8 to 31.5 | 95% | 75% | 39% | 13% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Isabel Dawes | RR | 21.4 | 17.9 to 24.9 | 12.8 to 30.1 | 92% | 68% | 30% | 8% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Orla O'Dwyer | WR | 18.5 | 15.2 to 21.8 | 10.4 to 26.6 | 79% | 41% | 13% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Charlotte Mullins | HFFL | 17.4 | 14.2 to 20.7 | 9.5 to 25.4 | 74% | 33% | 10% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Jade Ellenger | HBFR | 17.2 | 14.0 to 20.4 | 9.3 to 25.0 | 70% | 31% | 8% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Sophie Conway | R | 15.8 | 12.7 to 18.9 | 8.2 to 23.4 | 63% | 23% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Jennifer Dunne | FB | 15.7 | 12.6 to 18.8 | 8.1 to 23.3 | 63% | 22% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Breanna Koenen | BPL | 14.9 | 11.9 to 17.9 | 7.5 to 22.4 | 56% | 19% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Lily Postlethwaite | WL | 14.3 | 11.3 to 17.2 | 7.0 to 21.6 | 46% | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Natalie Grider | HBFL | 13.3 | 10.4 to 16.2 | 6.2 to 20.4 | 37% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Shannon Campbell | CHB | 12.6 | 9.8 to 15.4 | 5.7 to 19.5 | 33% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Tahlia Hickie | RK | 12.4 | 9.6 to 15.2 | 5.5 to 19.3 | 31% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Marlo Graham | HFFR | 10.4 | 7.8 to 13.0 | 3.9 to 16.8 | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Catherine Svarc | FPR | 9.9 | 7.3 to 12.4 | 3.6 to 16.2 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Asher Fearn-Wannan | INT | 9.4 | 6.9 to 11.8 | 3.2 to 15.5 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Shanae Davison | CHF | 9.3 | 6.8 to 11.8 | 3.1 to 15.4 | 13% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Claudia Wright | INT | 7.9 | 5.5 to 10.2 | 2.1 to 13.6 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Dakota Davidson | FF | 7.7 | 5.3 to 10.0 | 1.9 to 13.4 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Sophie Peters | INT | 7.4 | 5.1 to 9.6 | 1.7 to 13.0 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Eleanor Hartill | INT | 6.4 | 4.3 to 8.6 | 1.1 to 11.8 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Evie Long | INT | 6.2 | 4.1 to 8.4 | 0.9 to 11.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
Port Adelaide
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abbey Dowrick | C | 22.5 | 18.9 to 26.0 | 13.6 to 31.3 | 94% | 74% | 38% | 12% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 28.0 |
| Matilda Scholz | RK | 18.6 | 15.3 to 21.9 | 10.4 to 26.7 | 79% | 42% | 13% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Ella Heads | HBFL | 16.5 | 13.3 to 19.6 | 8.7 to 24.2 | 68% | 27% | 8% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Ashleigh Woodland | FF | 16.4 | 13.2 to 19.5 | 8.6 to 24.1 | 68% | 26% | 8% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Molly Brooksby | HBFR | 13.3 | 10.4 to 16.1 | 6.2 to 20.4 | 37% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Shineah Goody | R | 12.9 | 10.0 to 15.7 | 5.9 to 19.9 | 35% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Sachi Syme | CHB | 12.0 | 9.2 to 14.7 | 5.2 to 18.8 | 28% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Ella Boag | WL | 11.9 | 9.1 to 14.6 | 5.1 to 18.6 | 26% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Lauren Young | HFFR | 11.6 | 8.9 to 14.3 | 4.9 to 18.3 | 24% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Teagan Germech | BPL | 11.6 | 8.8 to 14.3 | 4.9 to 18.3 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Katelyn Pope | CHF | 10.5 | 7.8 to 13.1 | 4.0 to 16.9 | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Maria Moloney | INT | 10.4 | 7.7 to 13.0 | 3.9 to 16.8 | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Sophie Eaton | WR | 10.4 | 7.8 to 13.0 | 4.0 to 16.8 | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Piper Window | RR | 9.9 | 7.3 to 12.4 | 3.6 to 16.2 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Gemma Houghton | HFFL | 9.0 | 6.5 to 11.5 | 2.9 to 15.1 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Ellie Hampson | INT | 8.5 | 6.1 to 10.9 | 2.6 to 14.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Ebony O'Dea | INT | 7.8 | 5.5 to 10.2 | 2.1 to 13.6 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Cheyenne Hammond | INT | 7.6 | 5.3 to 10.0 | 1.9 to 13.4 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Amelie Borg | FB | 7.4 | 5.1 to 9.7 | 1.8 to 13.1 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Julia Teakle | FPR | 7.1 | 4.9 to 9.4 | 1.6 to 12.7 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Emily Elkington | INT | 5.8 | 3.7 to 7.9 | 0.7 to 11.0 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |