AFLW · ROUND 10 · BRIGHTON HOMES ARENA
Brisbane Lions v Port Adelaide
Sat 17 Oct 2026, 5:05pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
BRI by 0
BRI to win, 50% chance
BRI 50%50% PA
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
BRI by 16
HIT Actual margin 16 · 15.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Brisbane Lions
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandra Anderson | C | 88 | 73 to 103 | 53 to 124 | 80% | 65% | 46% | 29% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 88 |
| Isabel Dawes | RR | 87 | 72 to 102 | 52 to 122 | 79% | 63% | 44% | 28% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 94 |
| Orla O'Dwyer | WR | 70 | 57 to 84 | 38 to 103 | 51% | 33% | 17% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 45 |
| Sophie Conway | R | 69 | 56 to 83 | 37 to 102 | 50% | 33% | 15% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Charlotte Mullins | HFFL | 68 | 55 to 82 | 36 to 101 | 45% | 29% | 16% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Tahlia Hickie | RK | 68 | 54 to 81 | 36 to 100 | 44% | 28% | 16% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Jade Ellenger | HBFR | 65 | 52 to 79 | 34 to 97 | 40% | 24% | 12% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 85 |
| Jennifer Dunne | FB | 58 | 46 to 71 | 28 to 89 | 25% | 12% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Breanna Koenen | BPL | 58 | 45 to 71 | 27 to 88 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Lily Postlethwaite | WL | 57 | 44 to 69 | 26 to 87 | 26% | 14% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Natalie Grider | HBFL | 52 | 40 to 64 | 22 to 81 | 14% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 43 |
| Shannon Campbell | CHB | 52 | 40 to 64 | 22 to 81 | 14% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Catherine Svarc | FPR | 48 | 36 to 60 | 19 to 76 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Shanae Davison | CHF | 44 | 32 to 55 | 16 to 71 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 65 |
| Marlo Graham | HFFR | 44 | 32 to 55 | 16 to 71 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 31 |
| Dakota Davidson | FF | 41 | 30 to 52 | 14 to 68 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 38 |
| Asher Fearn-Wannan | INT | 38 | 27 to 49 | 12 to 64 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 51 |
| Claudia Wright | INT | 34 | 24 to 45 | 9 to 60 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 29 |
| Eleanor Hartill | INT | 33 | 22 to 43 | 8 to 58 | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20 |
| Sophie Peters | INT | 32 | 21 to 42 | 7 to 57 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 22 |
| Evie Long | INT | 32 | 21 to 42 | 7 to 57 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 26 |
Port Adelaide
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abbey Dowrick | C | 98 | 82 to 113 | 61 to 135 | 90% | 79% | 64% | 45% | 29% | inside our 90% range: 76 |
| Matilda Scholz | RK | 85 | 71 to 100 | 50 to 120 | 78% | 60% | 40% | 25% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 105 |
| Ashleigh Woodland | FF | 67 | 54 to 80 | 35 to 99 | 42% | 27% | 14% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 43 |
| Ella Heads | HBFL | 66 | 53 to 80 | 34 to 98 | 41% | 26% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Shineah Goody | R | 64 | 51 to 77 | 33 to 96 | 38% | 23% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Ella Boag | WL | 52 | 40 to 64 | 22 to 81 | 14% | 6% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 70 |
| Piper Window | RR | 51 | 39 to 63 | 22 to 80 | 14% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 43 |
| Lauren Young | HFFR | 50 | 38 to 62 | 21 to 79 | 17% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Molly Brooksby | HBFR | 49 | 37 to 61 | 20 to 78 | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 67 |
| Maria Moloney | INT | 49 | 37 to 61 | 20 to 78 | 15% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 82 |
| Sachi Syme | CHB | 47 | 35 to 59 | 19 to 76 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 50 |
| Katelyn Pope | CHF | 47 | 35 to 58 | 18 to 75 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 38 |
| Teagan Germech | BPL | 46 | 34 to 58 | 18 to 74 | 10% | 4% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 68 |
| Gemma Houghton | HFFL | 45 | 33 to 57 | 17 to 73 | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Sophie Eaton | WR | 43 | 31 to 54 | 15 to 70 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17 |
| Ellie Hampson | INT | 42 | 30 to 53 | 14 to 69 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 33 |
| Julia Teakle | FPR | 39 | 28 to 50 | 12 to 66 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 11 |
| Ebony O'Dea | INT | 38 | 27 to 49 | 11 to 64 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 29 |
| Cheyenne Hammond | INT | 34 | 24 to 45 | 9 to 60 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 36 |
| Emily Elkington | INT | 33 | 23 to 44 | 8 to 59 | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 46 |
| Amelie Borg | FB | 32 | 22 to 43 | 7 to 58 | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 28 |