AFLW · ROUND 10 · BRIGHTON HOMES ARENA
Brisbane Lions v Port Adelaide
Sat 17 Oct 2026, 5:05pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
BRI by 0
BRI to win, 50% chance
BRI 50%50% PA
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
BRI by 16
HIT Actual margin 16 · 15.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Brisbane Lions
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breanna Koenen | BPL | 4.0 | 2.5 to 5.5 | 0.3 to 7.6 | 62% | 45% | 32% | 17% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jade Ellenger | HBFR | 2.9 | 1.7 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 44% | 29% | 16% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Tahlia Hickie | RK | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 40% | 24% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Jennifer Dunne | FB | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 32% | 18% | 8% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Natalie Grider | HBFL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 32% | 18% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Charlotte Mullins | HFFL | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 32% | 18% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Lily Postlethwaite | WL | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 32% | 18% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Shannon Campbell | CHB | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 32% | 18% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Isabel Dawes | RR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 22% | 14% | 5% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Alexandra Anderson | C | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Dakota Davidson | FF | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Orla O'Dwyer | WR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Shanae Davison | CHF | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Sophie Conway | R | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 22% | 14% | 5% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Claudia Wright | INT | 1.5 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 13% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Evie Long | INT | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Eleanor Hartill | INT | 1.2 | 0.3 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Asher Fearn-Wannan | INT | 1.1 | 0.3 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Catherine Svarc | FPR | 1.1 | 0.2 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Marlo Graham | HFFR | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sophie Peters | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
Port Adelaide
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matilda Scholz | RK | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.5 | 47% | 32% | 17% | 10% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Ella Heads | HBFL | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 45% | 30% | 17% | 9% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Lauren Young | HFFR | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 45% | 30% | 17% | 9% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Molly Brooksby | HBFR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 32% | 18% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Shineah Goody | R | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 32% | 18% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Ella Boag | WL | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 32% | 18% | 8% | 4% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Gemma Houghton | HFFL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 22% | 14% | 5% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Teagan Germech | BPL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 25% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Abbey Dowrick | C | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ashleigh Woodland | FF | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Julia Teakle | FPR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sachi Syme | CHB | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Katelyn Pope | CHF | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Sophie Eaton | WR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 15% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Ebony O'Dea | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ellie Hampson | INT | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Amelie Borg | FB | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Emily Elkington | INT | 1.2 | 0.3 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Cheyenne Hammond | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Maria Moloney | INT | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Piper Window | RR | 1.0 | 0.2 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |