AFLW · ROUND 10 · IKON PARK
Carlton v Western Bulldogs
Sat 17 Oct 2026, 3:05pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
WB by 2
WB to win, 54% chance
CAR 46%54% WB
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WB by 30
HIT Actual margin 30 · 27.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Carlton
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abbie McKay | R | 22.6 | 19.0 to 26.1 | 13.7 to 31.4 | 95% | 75% | 39% | 12% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Dayna Finn | WR | 22.2 | 18.7 to 25.8 | 13.5 to 31.0 | 94% | 72% | 37% | 11% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Mimi Hill | RR | 21.1 | 17.6 to 24.6 | 12.5 to 29.7 | 92% | 65% | 28% | 7% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Claudia Whitfort | C | 19.5 | 16.2 to 22.9 | 11.2 to 27.9 | 84% | 49% | 17% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Erone Fitzpatrick | WL | 19.2 | 15.9 to 22.6 | 11.0 to 27.5 | 83% | 48% | 16% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 26.0 |
| Harriet Cordner | BPL | 17.2 | 14.0 to 20.4 | 9.3 to 25.1 | 71% | 31% | 9% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 30.0 |
| Amelia Velardo | HBFR | 16.1 | 13.0 to 19.2 | 8.4 to 23.8 | 67% | 26% | 8% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Keeley Sherar | HFFR | 15.7 | 12.7 to 18.8 | 8.1 to 23.3 | 63% | 22% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Sophie McKay | CHF | 13.4 | 10.5 to 16.3 | 6.3 to 20.5 | 37% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Ciara Fitzgerald | CHB | 12.7 | 9.9 to 15.6 | 5.8 to 19.7 | 35% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Lily Goss | INT | 11.9 | 9.1 to 14.6 | 5.1 to 18.7 | 27% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Poppy Scholz | HFFL | 11.5 | 8.8 to 14.2 | 4.8 to 18.2 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Siofra O'Connell | HBFL | 11.1 | 8.4 to 13.7 | 4.5 to 17.6 | 22% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Darcy Vescio | FF | 10.3 | 7.7 to 12.9 | 3.9 to 16.7 | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Yasmin Duursma | INT | 9.8 | 7.3 to 12.4 | 3.5 to 16.1 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Nell Morris-Dalton | FPR | 9.2 | 6.7 to 11.6 | 3.0 to 15.3 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Tayla McMillan | INT | 8.6 | 6.2 to 11.1 | 2.7 to 14.6 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Brooke Vickers | INT | 8.2 | 5.8 to 10.6 | 2.3 to 14.1 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Madeline Hendrie | FB | 8.0 | 5.6 to 10.3 | 2.2 to 13.8 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Lauren Bella | RK | 7.2 | 4.9 to 9.5 | 1.6 to 12.8 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Aisling Reidy | INT | 5.5 | 3.5 to 7.6 | 0.5 to 10.6 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
Western Bulldogs
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isabelle Pritchard | C | 25.6 | 21.8 to 29.4 | 16.3 to 34.9 | 97% | 88% | 62% | 27% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Jess Fitzgerald | HBFR | 20.7 | 17.3 to 24.2 | 12.2 to 29.2 | 90% | 63% | 25% | 6% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Ellie Blackburn | FPR | 18.3 | 15.1 to 21.6 | 10.2 to 26.4 | 78% | 40% | 13% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Mikala Cann | RR | 17.4 | 14.2 to 20.6 | 9.5 to 25.3 | 72% | 33% | 10% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 27.0 |
| Rylie Wilcox | WR | 14.8 | 11.8 to 17.8 | 7.4 to 22.2 | 54% | 18% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Jasmyn Smith | WL | 13.9 | 11.0 to 16.8 | 6.7 to 21.1 | 44% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Elisabeth Georgostathis | INT | 13.4 | 10.5 to 16.2 | 6.3 to 20.5 | 37% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Elle Bennetts | CHB | 13.4 | 10.5 to 16.3 | 6.3 to 20.5 | 38% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Cleo Buttifant | R | 13.3 | 10.4 to 16.1 | 6.2 to 20.4 | 37% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Britney Gutknecht | INT | 12.8 | 10.0 to 15.6 | 5.8 to 19.8 | 35% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Heidi Woodley | HFFR | 12.4 | 9.6 to 15.1 | 5.5 to 19.2 | 31% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Alice Edmonds | RK | 12.2 | 9.4 to 14.9 | 5.3 to 19.0 | 30% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Ellie Gavalas | INT | 11.1 | 8.4 to 13.7 | 4.5 to 17.7 | 22% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Kaylee Kimber | BPL | 10.5 | 7.9 to 13.1 | 4.0 to 17.0 | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Elaine Grigg | HFFL | 10.3 | 7.7 to 12.9 | 3.9 to 16.8 | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Vaomua Laloifi | FB | 10.1 | 7.5 to 12.6 | 3.7 to 16.4 | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Sarah Hartwig | CHF | 10.0 | 7.5 to 12.6 | 3.7 to 16.4 | 15% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Emma McDonald | FF | 9.5 | 7.0 to 12.0 | 3.3 to 15.7 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Isabella Grant | HBFL | 9.5 | 7.0 to 12.0 | 3.3 to 15.7 | 14% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Dominique Carruthers | INT | 8.8 | 6.4 to 11.3 | 2.8 to 14.9 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Analea McKee | INT | 6.2 | 4.0 to 8.3 | 0.9 to 11.4 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |