AFLW · ROUND 10 · IKON PARK
Carlton v Western Bulldogs
Sat 17 Oct 2026, 3:05pm AEDT (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
WB by 2
WB to win, 54% chance
CAR 46%54% WB
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
WB by 30
HIT Actual margin 30 · 27.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
21 Sep 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Carlton
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abbie McKay | R | 82 | 67 to 96 | 47 to 116 | 72% | 52% | 33% | 19% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 57 |
| Dayna Finn | WR | 80 | 66 to 95 | 46 to 115 | 70% | 51% | 32% | 17% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 82 |
| Erone Fitzpatrick | WL | 78 | 64 to 92 | 44 to 112 | 65% | 47% | 32% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 83 |
| Claudia Whitfort | C | 76 | 62 to 90 | 42 to 110 | 60% | 42% | 28% | 13% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 61 |
| Mimi Hill | RR | 75 | 61 to 89 | 42 to 109 | 59% | 41% | 27% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Keeley Sherar | HFFR | 65 | 52 to 78 | 34 to 97 | 40% | 24% | 12% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 51 |
| Harriet Cordner | BPL | 64 | 51 to 77 | 32 to 96 | 38% | 23% | 10% | 4% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 134 |
| Sophie McKay | CHF | 57 | 45 to 70 | 27 to 88 | 27% | 15% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Amelia Velardo | HBFR | 57 | 44 to 70 | 27 to 87 | 27% | 15% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 47 |
| Poppy Scholz | HFFL | 54 | 41 to 66 | 24 to 83 | 20% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 38 |
| Ciara Fitzgerald | CHB | 51 | 39 to 63 | 22 to 80 | 14% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Lily Goss | INT | 49 | 37 to 61 | 20 to 78 | 15% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 45 |
| Nell Morris-Dalton | FPR | 48 | 37 to 60 | 20 to 77 | 14% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24 |
| Darcy Vescio | FF | 47 | 36 to 59 | 19 to 76 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Yasmin Duursma | INT | 44 | 32 to 55 | 16 to 72 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 29 |
| Siofra O'Connell | HBFL | 42 | 31 to 54 | 15 to 70 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 29 |
| Tayla McMillan | INT | 40 | 29 to 52 | 13 to 67 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 25 |
| Lauren Bella | RK | 40 | 29 to 51 | 13 to 67 | 5% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 28 |
| Brooke Vickers | INT | 35 | 24 to 46 | 9 to 61 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 49 |
| Madeline Hendrie | FB | 34 | 23 to 44 | 8 to 59 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 46 |
| Aisling Reidy | INT | 29 | 19 to 39 | 4 to 53 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 32 |
Western Bulldogs
ANNOUNCED| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isabelle Pritchard | C | 93 | 78 to 108 | 57 to 129 | 86% | 73% | 55% | 36% | 21% | inside our 90% range: 67 |
| Jess Fitzgerald | HBFR | 74 | 60 to 88 | 41 to 107 | 58% | 39% | 24% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Mikala Cann | RR | 73 | 59 to 87 | 40 to 106 | 56% | 38% | 22% | 10% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 104 |
| Alice Edmonds | RK | 69 | 56 to 83 | 37 to 102 | 46% | 31% | 17% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 95 |
| Ellie Blackburn | FPR | 68 | 54 to 81 | 36 to 100 | 44% | 28% | 16% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 77 |
| Rylie Wilcox | WR | 59 | 46 to 72 | 28 to 90 | 26% | 12% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Cleo Buttifant | R | 58 | 45 to 71 | 28 to 89 | 24% | 12% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Jasmyn Smith | WL | 55 | 42 to 67 | 25 to 85 | 22% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Heidi Woodley | HFFR | 54 | 42 to 67 | 24 to 84 | 22% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Sarah Hartwig | CHF | 54 | 42 to 66 | 24 to 84 | 20% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 49 |
| Elisabeth Georgostathis | INT | 52 | 40 to 64 | 23 to 81 | 15% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 51 |
| Elle Bennetts | CHB | 49 | 37 to 61 | 20 to 78 | 15% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 25 |
| Elaine Grigg | HFFL | 48 | 36 to 60 | 19 to 76 | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Britney Gutknecht | INT | 47 | 35 to 58 | 18 to 75 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 31 |
| Emma McDonald | FF | 46 | 34 to 58 | 18 to 74 | 10% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 68 |
| Ellie Gavalas | INT | 45 | 34 to 57 | 17 to 73 | 9% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 34 |
| Vaomua Laloifi | FB | 42 | 31 to 54 | 15 to 70 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 36 |
| Kaylee Kimber | BPL | 42 | 31 to 54 | 15 to 70 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 31 |
| Isabella Grant | HBFL | 38 | 27 to 49 | 12 to 65 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 32 |
| Dominique Carruthers | INT | 36 | 25 to 47 | 10 to 62 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18 |
| Analea McKee | INT | 34 | 24 to 45 | 9 to 60 | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 34 |